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gradually increasing cost adder, such as a greenhouse gas tax, it can take a long time to push uncompetitive technologies completely out of the market.”35 The US National Electrification Assessment, published in 2018 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), uses a similar model and methods to the MCS study. In its “transformation” scenario, carbon prices rise to over $300/ton by 2050. EPRI’s findings related to the electrification of the residential space heating sector are similar to the MCS study: just under half of energy demand is satisfied with electricity by 2050, with the remainder supplied by natural gas. Finally, a 2018 study by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)—Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States—offers a hybrid of the “expert assumption” and “cost minimization” approaches. NREL uses the same model as Williams et al. (2015), with technological deployment determined by expert assumptions and with ASHPs as the primary strategy for electrifying space heating. However, unlike the Williams et al. or Jacobsen et al. studies, NREL did not impose an exogenous constraint on the degree of electrification or decarbonization to achieve by 2050. Like the MCS and EPRI studies, fossil fuel alternatives are assumed to continue competing with electric alternatives through 2050. In addition, NREL’s assumptions on technological deployment were based on factors similar to those endogenously modeled with the framework of the MCS and EPRI studies: expected costs, operational characteristics, policies, and reasonable stock turnover rates given preferences for incumbent technologies. With a hybrid methodology, it is perhaps not surprising that with respect to the electrification of space heating, NREL’s results (for its “High” electrification scenario) lay between the two categories of studies described above: about 60 percent of residential space heating energy demand is provided by electricity by 2050. 4.2. Implications Each of the five studies portrays a massive increase in the deployment of heat pumps. However, policy makers charting a course for a carbon-free energy system could arrive at vastly different conclusions depending on which study they read. The scenarios that show 100 percent electrification of space heating portray heat pumps as a potential silver bullet solution, implying that policy makers can achieve any space heating decarbonization goal by concentrating on the deployment of this one technology. But these outcomes are contingent on assuming that consumers can no longer use fossil fuels for space heating. In contrast, the studies that show only moderate electrification by 2050 suggest potential limits to the deployment of heat pump technologies, particularly in cold climates, and imply that near-zero emissions levels will require a focus on additional decarbonization strategies as well. However, the models that produce these results assume that markets will behave in ways that resemble the past—in other words, they assume that unprecedented events will never occur. If large shifts in technologies and consumer preferences are destined to upend the space heating market, energy models are not designed to see this outcome coming in advance. DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | DECEMBER 2019 | 21PDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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