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natural gas furnace option due to the low efficiency of current ASHPs in very cold climates.37 The results of the Base Scenario help to explain recent market trends. Because ASHPs are reaching cost competitiveness in certain regions, their penetration has grown considerably in recent years, particularly in the southeastern United States (where Atlanta is located). However, the total market share of ASHPs nationally in the US remains low for various reasons. First, natural gas furnaces remain the cheaper option in many regions. Second, barriers other than cost and performance prevent ASHP adoption, including lack of information, principle- agent problems, and preferences for the status quo. F. igure 7: Comparison of net present value costs of heating and cooling alternatives 5.2. Technology and Policy Progress Scenarios We also tested scenarios based on the changes in technologies and policies needed to achieve the complete decarbonization of space heating in the United States. The scenarios include the following: 1. A Strong Technological Progress Scenario: Capital costs of ASHPs decrease by 30 percent and COP increases by 30 percent between now and the early- to mid-2030s. While some studies suggest that the improvements in heat pump technologies could be even larger in the next couple of decades,38 we use these assumptions to account for the fact that natural gas furnaces are likely to improve to some extent as well. (Furnaces are a relatively mature technology, so their improvement is likely to be more incremental and less of policy objective than improvement of ASHPs in a jurisdiction committed to decarbonization. But improvements are still likely.) DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | DECEMBER 2019 | 25PDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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