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DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS 7. CONCLUSION The current space heating market is dominated by fossil fuels. For policy makers serious about responding to the risks of climate change, this situation is untenable. To achieve greenhouse gas emissions reductions consistent with international climate change goals, emissions from space heating in the United States need to fall to near zero by midcentury or soon after. While space heating has received little individualized attention in studies of the decarbonization or electrification of the US energy system, numerous prominent studies have charted a pathway for the decarbonization of the entire energy system, which includes the space heating market. These studies portray the electrification of space heating energy uses, primarily with ASHPs, as a favored pathway to reducing emissions from space heating by 2050. Indeed, despite minimal policy support, the use of ASHPs is already accelerating rapidly in certain regions of the US, particularly in the Southeast. That is because improvements in the technology, combined with favorable fuel prices, have made ASHPs the low-cost alternative in much of the region. However, throughout most of the country, the market shares of ASHPs remain low, especially in areas with colder climates where ASHPs are less efficient. The existing decarbonization literature suggests the following two broad conclusions: ● There are no major technological barriers preventing the near-complete electrification of space heating energy uses in US residential and commercial buildings by midcentury, relying primarily on the deployment of ASHPs. ● If consumers behave as they have in the past, fossil fuels will retain a large portion of the market share for building space heating by midcentury, even with strong market- based climate policies (i.e., carbon prices) and technological progress of ASHPs. Left unanswered by the literature is why strong carbon prices and technological progress are insufficient. Is it due to the limitations of the ASHP technology? Or is it due to more general barriers to rapid transformations in energy markets dominated by consumer choice? This study strongly favors the latter explanation. We built a simple model of building space heating and cooling that estimates the costs of electric versus natural gas space heating and cooling alternatives in a typical household in three representative cities in the United States: San Diego, Atlanta, and Fargo. The model portrayed new equipment installations (not retrofits) in the early 2030s, so that the useful lifetime of the equipment ends around midcentury. The results showed that using ASHPs for heating and cooling is already approaching cost competitiveness in two of the representative cities (Atlanta and San Diego). With climate policies and technological progress that may be expected in a jurisdiction committed to decarbonization by midcentury, by the 2030s ASHPs will be cost-competitive in all three cities (including the very cold climate of Fargo). Combined with the literature, the results of this analysis point to the following conclusions about 32 | CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY | COLUMBIA SIPAPDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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