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how far ASHPs can take the United States on a pathway to the decarbonization of building space heating: ● A large-scale increase in ASHP deployments is likely to be an important part of any space heating decarbonization scenario. Aggressively pursuing the deployment of electric heat pumps in the near term, while prioritizing regions where heat pumps are most cost effective, is a “no regrets” strategy. ● In the longer term, the continued rapid deployment of ASHPs is unlikely to be inhibited by barriers related to their costs or performance. With continued technological improvements and the implementation of climate policies, ASHPs become cost competitive even in cold climates. These findings suggest that policy makers can be confident in ASHPs as a primary space heating decarbonization strategy. However, to achieve near-zero emissions by midcentury, policy makers need to be prepared to use policy instruments that mandate reductions in emissions from space heating, such as technology standards, emissions caps, or mandates to stop using fossil fuels. Otherwise, the transition to ASHPs is not likely to proceed rapidly enough to be consistent with midcentury emissions goals. Fortunately, the results of this study suggest that such mandates are unlikely to be cost prohibitive for typical households by the 2030s. Alternatively, there are other options to decarbonizing space heating energy uses: RNG, hydrogen, and centralized or district heating. Each of these options comes with challenges that will require significant government actions to overcome, like the regulatory processes required to ensure carbon-beneficial sources of RNG and the infrastructure projects required to transport low-carbon fuels that cannot be dropped into existing pipelines. This study does not point to a proper balance between a focus on ASHPs and alternative building space heating decarbonization options, and the broader literature has little to offer policy makers. More research on the opportunities and challenges associated with different building space heating decarbonization alternatives is sorely needed. DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | DECEMBER 2019 | 33PDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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