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DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS 29. Goetzler et al., Research & Development Roadmap for Next-Generation Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants (US Department of Energy, November 2014), https:// www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/12/f19/Refrigerants%20Roadmap%20Final%20 Report%202014.pdf. 30. J. H. Williams et al., Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States (Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, November 16, 2015), https://usddpp.org/downloads/2014- technical-report.pdf. 31. White House, United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization, November 2016, https://unfccc.int/files/focus/long-term_strategies/application/pdf/mid_century_ strategy_report-final_red.pdf. 32. EPRI, U.S. National Electrification Assessment, April 2018, http://ipu.msu.edu/wp-content/ uploads/2018/04/EPRI-Electrification-Report-2018.pdf. 33. Trieu Mai et al., Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2018), https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71500.pdf. 34. Mark Z. Jacobson et al., “Matching Demand with Supply at Low Cost in 139 Countries among 20 World Regions with 100% Intermittent Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) for All Purposes,” Renewable Energy 123, (2018): 236–248. 35. “GCAM v5.2 Documentation: Economic Choice in GCAM,” Joint Global Change Research Institute, accessed November 7, 2019, http://jgcri.github.io/gcam-doc/choice.html. 36. NPV costs have been calculated as the sum of all costs (capital costs and operation and maintenance costs) discounted with a 10 percent rate. 37. Given this study’s focus on electrification, we assume ASHPs are backed up by an electric resistance heater. Alternatively, ASHPs could be backed up by natural gas furnaces. 38. International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP), and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Heat Pumps Technology Brief, 2013, https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2015/IRENA- ETSAP-Tech-Brief-E12-Heat-Pumps.pdf; IEA, ETSAP, and IRENA, Heat Pumps: Insights for Policy Makers, 2013, https://iea-etsap.org/E-TechDS/PDF/E19IR_Heat%20Pumps_HN_ Jan2013_GSOK.pdf. 39. In the EPRI transformation scenario, carbon prices start at $50 per ton in 2020 and increase by 7 percent per year in inflation-adjusted terms. 40. Noah Kaufman et al., An Assessment of the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act (Columbia University SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy, November 2019), https:// energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/assessment-energy-innovation-and-carbon- dividend-act. 42 | CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY | COLUMBIA SIPAPDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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