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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Gas Heat Pumps (GHPs) have substantial potential to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across various climates for both the residential and commercial markets in North America. Local Distribution Companies (LDCs) are eager to accelerate the advancement and commercialization of GHP technologies for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) and water-heating applications. LDC motivations include increasing customers’ high efficiency product choices, policy drivers, meeting energy efficiency targets, and reducing GHG emissions. Technology developers and manufacturers represent the majority of supply-side actors interested in GHPs. Their motivations for backing GHPS are similar to the reasons expressed by LDCs. These include the desire to reduce GHG emissions, construct Path to Zero Net Energy (ZNE) buildings and low-load homes, unlock grid balance opportunities, meet regulatory standards with gas products in the future, and, for some, provide resiliency and redundancy. In addition, these developers and manufacturers understand that LDC intervention and collaboration will play a critical key role in transforming the market. TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW In North America, natural gas is the predominant fuel for providing heat and hot water to residential and commercial buildings. In the U.S., the majority of homes and businesses use natural gas for heating, collectively consuming 65 billion therms for space heating and hot water—totaling 23% of the nation’s overall natural gas consumption. In Canada, half of all homes use natural gas for heating. 65% of Canadian homes use natural gas to generate hot water, slightly lower than the 80% of Canadian businesses. The predominance of natural gas aligns with consumer surveys indicating that natural gas is the preferred fuel for thermal comfort. Despite the predominance of and preference for natural gas, developers and manufacturers are met with two major challenges: 1) the gaining market momentum of electric heat pumps, 2) and the difficulty in meeting the increasing efficiency rulings and standards with existing gas technologies. Despite these challenges, there is a strong opportunity for developers, manufacturers and LDCs to accelerate the market entrance of efficient low carbon GHP technologies, thereby expanding customers’ natural gas product choices and demonstrating the role of natural gas in a low carbon future. As part of this GHP Roadmap effort, a conservative, qualitative analysis was performed to represent GHP applications in residential single-family homes—the broadest GHP application with readily available simulated modeling best practices. Across a variety of diverse sponsor regions, the analysis compared the consumer cost and energy-use emissions for residential- sized GHP equipment versus conventional gas-fired and electrically driven equipment (see Technology Assessment, page 18). Simulated modeling results revealed: GHPs maintain a GHG and cost advantage over the gas baseline scenario in all sponsor regions for heating, and most regions in scenarios where gas-driven cooling (e.g., the gas engine heat pump/ advanced GHP scenario) is also included. The cost- effectiveness of gas-cooling is viable in all but one of the markets considered. GHPs consistently have a cost advantage over electrically-driven heat pumps in all but one of the markets. They also have a GHG advantage in heating-dominant climates and in sectors where grid GHG-content is high. GHPs may have a more challenging value proposition in sectors where the cost of electricity is low compared to gas, and where the electricity grid has a relatively low GHG content. However, GHPs may still have a compelling customer case in these sectors with their ability to help avoid demand-based charges and electrical infrastructure upgrades, and by offering improved comfort—all aspects not considered in this conservative analysis. There are multiple GHP products at various stages of development and availability. Although there is a relatively small number of commercialized products currently available in North America, opportunity exists with products in the pre-commercial phase and in the European market. Presented by: Brio and GTI 5PDF Image | GAS HEAT PUMP TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET ROADMAP
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