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MARKET PARTICIPANTS INTERVIEW FINDINGS Manufacturer Findings Manufacturers are apprehensive about the market potential and lack the data to clearly define the opportunity. Therefore, they lack the business case to move to the development stage and have insufficient resources to move forward in a timely manner. Manufacturers are eager to know how LDCs and the efficiency community will show up throughout the product lifecycle to support their business case development, ongoing refinements to the business case and overall market acceleration. Based on past experience with LDCs, they stated their desire to have robust field testing and pilots followed up with large- scale implementation efforts. LDCs entry into deeper supply-side engagement offers an opportunity to overcome this concern. Manufacturers are unaware what LDC support will exist and how long the support will be around, which leaves large holes in their business case. As of now, the supply side does not feel engaged by LDCs, but would welcome their committed involvement. Interview findings include: Technology perceptions and commitment reported by manufacturers: While understanding the technical potential of gas heat pumps, they have concerns about the future market potential and lack the business case to clearly define the opportunity. Manufacturers that also offer electrically-driven equipment are fuel agnostic and motivated by finances and customer choice—not by fuel mix. When asked to rate their commitment to bringing GHPs to market on a scale of 1 to 6, with 6 being very committed and 1 being not at all committed, they responded: Half of the active manufacturers respondents reported 3 or below and half reported 6. One respondent abstained, stating the question was unfair as it would require them to reveal something they could not reveal. Non-active manufacturers reported a low commitment to developing the technology with the majority of them rating their commitment a 1. The majority of non-active manufacturers perceive GHPs as being in the very early stages of commercialization. Product lifecycle process and expectations by manufacturers: Manufacturers highlighted their utilization of a six- to-seven product stage gate process during product development, launch and refinement. These stages include: Manufacturers are struggling to move through the third stage—business case development—of the product stage gate process. They are particularly challenged by defining market size, geographic acceptance, willingness to pay, pay-back period and customer value drivers. They need to be convinced there is a market that will accept GHP technologies. Several water-heating manufacturers cited the slow uptake of the electric HPWH as a “lesson learned” regarding product launches. Internal financial and human resource constraints exist—public companies have to focus on areas that produce shareholder returns and revenues. They were hesitant to share cost-break sales targets, but they showed signs of willingness. Product development plans by manufacturers: European manufacturers are not actively pursuing the North American market, but they are interested. As product development requires continued investment, projects can become stalled when funding is diverted to products that have clear signs of profitability. Commercialized products sales volumes are low, which may impact future development plans. Manufacturers do not think that electric HPWHs have been successful to date. Presented by: Brio and GTI 21 1. 2. 3. Business Case Discovery Scoping Building & Development 4. 5. 6. Testing and Product Post Launch Validation Launch EvaluationPDF Image | GAS HEAT PUMP TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET ROADMAP
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