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SHOULD A CO2 TAX OF 100€ BE INTRODUCED THESE MEMBER STATES WOULD GROW TO 12 (+UK) A recent proposal of the European Commission to extend ETS to heating has sparked debate both at European and national levels. Critics say that the proposal would raise the cost of fossil heating and several concerns were raised about the likely increase of energy poverty. Regardless of the tool, the internalisation of both environmental and climate costs must be taken forward while avoiding that this weighs on low-income households and impoverished customers. Therefore, we applied a scenario of a carbon tax of €100/TCO2e – all other conditions left unchanged- to heating fossil fuels (for electricity we added €70 to the existing €30/T of EU-ETS in Dec 2020) and studied what impact it would have on our model. Indeed, the analysis shows that on average the payback time of the switch from fossil heating to renewable heating would be 1 year shorter in most countries but only 4 more countries MS would join the list of those with a payback of 8 years or less. These are the Netherlands (7y), Denmark (8y), Germany (8y) and Sweden (7y). While the carbon pricing alone would not be enough to make heat pumps competitive, it would still halve payback time in countries such as Hungary and Greece, among others. THE ROUGH AMOUNT TO SHIFT ALL EU’S GAS BOILERS TO RENEWABLE HEATING IS 70BN The analysis considers a standardised investment of €10000, and indicates that in most countries there is a need for additional subsidies for the considered standard household to be able to pay back such sum in less than 8 years through the savings on heating bills. In countries with high electricity costs, the needed extra incentive is the highest. Countries with low existing incentives and low average income are in the need of an extra boost too. EEC countries where lower wages and very low to non-existing subsidy schemes are the ones where households are in dire need of help: Bulgarian households, for instance, would need 8900 Euro each, for a national cost of roughly 100M while in Romania the individual amount would be lower but given the size of the market, the national effort would be more relevant (6.3Bn). The countries where investments would be the least are Sweden (10M) and Austria (50M) while the highest sums are those needed for Germany (25.3Bn), Netherlands (7.9Bn) and Belgium (7.7Bn) 5 £70bnPDF Image | GREEN HEAT FOR ALL
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