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ENERGY TRENDS & THEIR EFFECT ON HYDRONIC HEAT SOURCES The market for hydronic heat sources, like many products that use energy to provide a benefit, is shaped by public perception, government policy and economic competition. As the 21st century unfolds, social attitudes and government policies around the world are increasingly focused on climate change, with a prevailing emphasis on reducing carbon emissions. There are widely varying opinions on how “decarbonization” should be dealt with. They range from complete dismissal of any need to act on the subject, to proposals that would radically change how an average person would eat, remain comfortable in their home or workplace, travel, or even use their leisure time. This issue of idronics is not meant to endorse any specific view on how carbon reduction should be dealt with. However, one objective of idronics is to provide information on trends that are likely to influence the market in which HVAC professionals work. To that end, it appears highly likely that the energy used by future hydronic heating and cooling systems will be increasingly supplied through electricity and less by the burning of fossil fuels. There are several observations and market trends that support this statement. They include: 1. Government policy supporting decarbonization: 3. Strong interest and impressive market growth for “net- zero” buildings: Although there are several ways that “net-zero” can be defined, most consumers understand the concept as a building that produces all the energy it requires to support an average lifestyle, provide an adequate work environment or otherwise allow the building to sustain its intended function. Since virtually all buildings have electrical loads, some of the energy has to be produced on site, usually by solar photovoltaic systems, or by a “community” solar cooperative using a larger-scale solar photovoltaic system. Figure 3-1 Net zero housing units within the U.S. increased by 59% from 2017 to 2018. Over that same period, the increase in net zero housing units in Canada was 240%. Multi- family projects currently represent 71% of the total net zero housing stock. One market research firm anticipates that the global market for net zero buildings will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 39% by 2021. The only practical approach to achieving net zero is through use of electricity generated by renewable sources such as solar photovoltaic systems. Unlike burning fossil fuels, which is a non-reversible form of energy conversion, electricity can be manipulated in many ways and over many “scales.” Electricity generated at a building site can be accurately metered back to the utility grid and instantly used by any of the millions of electrical loads served by that grid. Techniques Figure 3-2 Currently there are expanding government policies that discourage use of carbon-based fuels in favor of electricity. These policies are being implemented by a wide spectrum of government agencies, including federal, provincial, state and municipal. They are based on the premise that an increasing percentage of electricity will be generated by renewable sources such as utility- scale solar photovoltaic systems, wind energy farms and hydroelectric facilities. These policies are having an effect. There is steady growth in the amount of renewably sourced electricity available to the North American power grid. Since 2010, solar electrical generating capacity in the U.S. has increased 80-fold. Electricity generated by utility-scale wind farms has tripled over the same period. Electrification is also being increasingly implemented in the transportation sector. 2. Financial incentives: Financial incentives have been implemented by government agencies and private utilities to encourage use of electric heat pumps. Past experience consistently proves that markets adapt to leverage these incentives while they are available. That experience also proves that the phaseout and eventual elimination of these financial incentives can lead to rapid market adjustments. Courtesy of Revision Energy 20PDF Image | Heat Pump Systems 2020
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