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In the Ex.III/1 report, the HFC BAU scenario for non-Article 5 parties takes into account available, reported HFC consumption up to 2014 by non-Article 5 parties or regions to estimate total (global) HFC consumption. It needs to be noted that the annual reporting of consumption or supply may also take into account stockpiling. The value of these reports is to provide some indication of short-term trends, but analysis of BAU demand is needed for the longer term. In the Ex.III/1 report, the HFC BAU scenario for Article 5 parties is calculated without accounting for any HFC regulations as the impacts for these parties are not clear. The BAU scenario specifically takes into account economic growth factors expected for the period 2015-2050, as they were already presented (for RAC) in the XXVII/4 Task Force report (TEAP, 2016). The construction of the HFC BAU scenario for the RAC sector includes a manufacturing and servicing component (see Table 14-7 below). The total HFC manufacturing demand is determined by the amount of equipment that is manufactured after the conversion away from HCFCs (this only applies to Article 5 parties), and by the continuing growth in the numbers of HFC equipment. For Article 5 parties, this results in a steady growth in the HFC demand for the four major HFCs used in RAC. In the case of the HFC BAU scenario for non-Article 5 parties, the demand for HFCs is reduced through the impact of existing regulations. Certain sub-sectors and certain countries are not subject to such regulations, so there will be a certain level of growth in the non-Article 5 HFC BAU demand. The HFC servicing demand is the total HFC amount that is required to guarantee good operation of the equipment bank in the RACHP sector. The servicing component (see Table 14-7) is complex, and of equal or greater importance than the manufacturing component in the construction of an HFC BAU scenario. Considerations include leakage, loss in case of accidents, recovery and recycling, these are all taken into account in the bottom-up model, alongside the lifetime of equipment in the various sub-sectors. With 12-20 year RACHP equipment lifetimes, the RACHP servicing amounts will be the same or larger than the amount needed for manufacturing; this is a clear outcome of the application of the bottom-up model. Table 14-7: BAU demand for R/AC manufacturing and servicing in non-Article 5 and Article 5 parties in Mt CO2-eq. (2015-2050) (Ex.III/1 report, Table 2-3) HFC BAU demand in Mt CO2-eq. (year) Non-Article 5 Manufacturing Servicing Total R/AC demand* Total BAU (comparison)** Article 5 Manufacturing 388.2 Servicing 181.9 Total R/AC demand* 570.1 192.8 378.0 444 592.7 384.0 976.7 1047 2025 207.7 183.8 391.5 451 847.2 677.6 1524.8 1615 2030 238.5 165.1 403.6 467 1113.1 1043.9 2157.0 2264 2035 280.5 167.5 448.0 515 1281.5 1441.0 2722.5 2847 2040 319.9 187.5 507.4 578 1483.6 1825.8 3309.4 3451 2045 370.3 210.4 580.7 655 1728.7 2318.8 4047.6 4207 2050 429.3 237.2 666.5 745 2025.9 2952.4 4978.3 5157 2015# 2020# 517 Total BAU (comparison)** 627 209.1 185.2 184.8 393.9 * Note the difference and increase in order of magnitude between non-Article 5 and Article 5 parties ** See Annex III in the Ex.III/1 report for all BAU total HFC consumption values for the separate years # The values highlighted in yellow have been corrected to be consistent with the corresponding values in Annex III of the Ex.III/1 report 282 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment ReportPDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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