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heating applications would reduce US energy consumption by about 2.1% (Nadel 2016). The net impact on greenhouse gas emissions is similarly reduced as the electric system that provides power for these iASHPs shifts toward lower carbon sources. Achieving the market potential for iASHP is neither simple nor likely to occur without market intervention to advance product maturity, standards of practice maturity, and production economies of scale. This is a classic “chicken and egg” problem that plagues many technologies. At its current state, the conventional ASHP doesn’t provide a strong enough value proposition in heating climates. To realize full market maturity may require substantial coordinated effort between utilities, manufacturers, and government. Transformative Trajectories Four Important Technologies Air source heat pumps are one of several essential technologies which have emerged in the past 20 years that will dramatically reduce total energy use and related environmental impact. Example essential technologies are: LED lighting, new renewables2, and electric vehicles. Combined, these technologies provide cornerstone services in an industrialized society providing heating, cooling, lighting, transportation, and environmentally sustainable energy. Table 1 shows a comparison of energy needed to provide these services currently (pre-transformation) and for both the technical potential (100% change) and achievable potential. The achievable potential represents a future state of substantial market maturity in performance, standards of practice, and economies of scale. Table 1: Technical and Achievable Potential Comparison Application Source Energy Use (Quads) Achievable Current Use 100% Adoption Adoption Achievable Savings Residential and Commercial Lighting 3 1 1 2 iASHPs for Space and Water Heating 11 3 7 4 Light Vehicle Transportation 15 3 11 5 Photovoltaics -0.2 -9 -5 5 Total Energy (Quads) 30 -1 15 15 Source: Authors’ calculations, based on EIA 2018 Energy Outlook data. The Achievable figures assume 50% market penetration by 2050, except for lighting where 100% is assumed. Table 1 shows the approximate savings potential of iASHP is larger than LED lighting and comparable to that of electric vehicles and photovoltaics. These calculations assume the future iASHP systems have a seasonal COP of 2.2 for water heating and 3.0 for space heating sourced from an electrical grid with 50% average renewable generation content. The technical 2This includes PV, Wind, bio-energy, geothermal and small hydro. 1-2 ©2018 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings

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