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REGULATORY ASSISTANCE PROJECT THE PERFECT FIT | 11 Figure 2. Renewable energy from heat pumps grows rapidly across European Commission scenarios (Mtoe) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 REFERENCE MIX_CP MIX MIX_FLEX MIX_MAX REG REG_MAX REG_CERT 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: European Commission. (2021). Impact Assessment on the Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on energy efficiency (recast). Brussels, 14.7.2021 SWD (2021) 623 final PART 2/2 Put simply, heat pumps are a critical technology for decarbonising heating. But the path ahead is steep. As shown previously in Figure 2, the heat supplied by heat pumps will need to at least triple in the next decade if the EU is to meet its 2030 climate and energy targets. While some EU countries have successfully deployed heat pumps at scale – it is estimated that nearly 15 million heat pumps have been installed in the EU as of 20204 – currently only 12% of renewable heating and cooling demand, or 2.5% of overall EU heating and cooling demand, is met by heat pumps.5 Though growth has picked up in recent years, it is still limited to certain countries and not widespread. Much remains to be done for heat pumps to reach their full potential. This paper will lay out why heat pumps are so important (section 2), the key factors shaping the competitiveness of heat pumps (section 3), assess the need for EU-level policy reform focusing on the Fit for 55 package (section 4), assess existing European heat pump strategies and policies at national level (section 5), and provide policy recommendations for the way forward at an EU and Member State level (section 6). Heat pumps come in all sizes. A large water source heat pump feeding a heat network at Queens Quay, Glasgow, Scotland. Credit: Vital Energi and Rob Whitney’s domestic air source heat pump. 4 European Heat Pump Association. (EHPA). (2021). Market Data [website]. https://www.ehpa.org/market-data/ 5 Eionet Potral. (2020). ETC/CME Report 7/2020: Renewable energy in Europe 2020 - Recent growth and knock-on effects. https://www.eionet.europa.eu/etcs/ etc-cme/products/etc-cme-reports/etc-cme-report-7-2020-renewable-energy-in-europe-2020-recent-growth-and-knock-on-effectsPDF Image | RAP Perfect Fit Heat Pump
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