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20 | THE PERFECT FIT REGULATORY ASSISTANCE PROJECT As is shown below in Figure 6,21 the retail price of electricity varies significantly across Europe, driven by differences in wholesale market prices but also by tax and policy choices. While wholesale costs are more difficult to control, the application of taxes and levies on electricity bills can be modified and moved between government budgets and even into government spending to help support heat pump deployment. It’s worth noting that the major wholesale gas market price increases which first happened in late 2021 will have impacted electricity prices and the relative consumer costs of fossil gas compared to electricity. Analysis by RAP has shown that, following the price rises, a satisfactorily performing heat pump will now be cheaper to run in the UK than a gas boiler.22 In addition, variable ‘time of use’ and ‘smart’ tariffs can reduce heat pump running costs through maximizing the use of lower-cost electricity.23 Policymakers can support such smart pricing approaches to reduce heat pump running costs. Figure 6. Household electricity costs across EU Member States for the first half of 2021 showing the impacts of taxes and levies (EUR per kWh) 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 -0.05 Source: recreated from Eurostat. (2021). File: Electricity prices for household consumers, first half 2021 v5.png [website]. Value-added tax Other taxes Without taxes Minimum COPs for heat pumps in test settings are legislated for in product regulations under the eco-design directive,24 and these can be increased over time as the technology further evolves. However, it should also be remembered that external temperatures will affect heat pump SCOPs. Lower ground or air temperatures in cooler countries will in general lead to lower SCOPs and therefore higher relative costs. Estimated seasonal performance of air source heat pumps in different European geographies is shown below in Figure 7.25 The impact of this issue can be resolved in part through the requirement for higher levels of fabric efficiency in cooler countries, as is generally already the case. 21 Eurostat. (2021). File:Electricity prices for household consumers, first half 2021 v5.png [website]. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index. php?title=File:Electricity_prices_for_household_consumers,_first_half_2021_v5.png 22 Regulatory Assistance Project. (2022). Analysis: Running costs of heat pumps versus gas boilers. https://www.raponline.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ Heat-pump-running-costs-v271.pdf 23 Rosenow, J. & Lowes, R. (2020). Heating without the hot air: Principles for smart heat electrification. Regulatory Assistance Project. https://www.raponline.org/ knowledge-center/heating-without-hot-air-principles-smart-heat-electrification/ 24 IEA. (2021). Heat Pumps. https://www.iea.org/reports/heat-pumps 25 Nouvel, R., Cotrado Sehgewlmeble, M. & Pietruschka, D. (2015). European Mapping of Seasonal Performances of Air-source and Geothermal Heat Pumps for Residential Applications [presentation at Conference: CISBAT 2015 At: Lausanne, Switzerland]. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281745223_ European_Mapping_of_Seasonal_Performances_of_Air-source_and_Geothermal_Heat_Pumps_for_Residential_Applications/download; Miara, M. (2021). How well do heat pumps really work in existing buildings? Innovation 4E. Fraunhofer. https://blog.innovation4e.de/en/2021/03/03/how-well-do-heat-pumps- really-work-in-existing-buildings/ EU Euro area Germany Denmark Belgium Ireland Spain Italy Austria Portugal Luxembourg Cyprus France Czechia FInland Greece Slovakia Poland Romania Latvia Lithuania Estonia Croatia Netherlands Malta Bulgaria Hungary Lichtenstein Norway Iceland Montenegro Turkey Serbia Bosnia & Herzegovina Kosovo Moldova Georgia UkrainePDF Image | RAP Perfect Fit Heat Pump
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