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REGULATORY ASSISTANCE PROJECT THE PERFECT FIT | 23 3.4 Learning from experience The energy system models which highlight the importance of heat pumps tend to consider overall system costs, portraying cost-effectiveness at a ‘macro’ level. However, even if a high price of carbon were to be included across the entire economy of EU Member States (effectively replicating the findings of the models in the real world), it is not clear that this alone would drive heat pump deployment at the required levels. What is needed is a package of policy and regulatory measures which takes into account the existing heat system, rebalances costs, and provides support to building owners and residents. In practice, a number of economic, technical, regulatory and socio-cultural factors at the ‘micro’ level determine whether heat pumps are competitive and deployable in a given situation. Previous analysis by RAP considered a policy package which could be used to encourage heat pump deployment in the UK at a rate commensurate with the government’s target of 600,000 installations annually by 2028.28 This analysis (synthesized below in Figure 1029) considered heat pump deployment success stories, particularly in Nordic countries, and highlighted the need for a coordinated package of measures. Such a package should include: 01 02 03 04 Capital support to eliminate any potential upfront cost and access to capital issues where required. Pricing policies, which result in lower ongoing heat pump running costs compared to incumbent fossil-fuel boiler running costs. The use of regulations to drive purchasing behaviours. A thorough governance framework to enable sustainable heat pump deployment through the development of softer social elements such as skills development and consumer protection. 28 Lowes, R., Rosenow, J. & Guertler, P. (2021). Getting on track to net zero: A policy package for a heat pump mass market in the UK. Regulatory Assistance Project. https://www.raponline.org/knowledge-center/getting-track-net-zero-policy-package-heat-pump-mass-market-uk/ 29 Lowes, R. et al., 2021.PDF Image | RAP Perfect Fit Heat Pump
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