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Capturing and Utilizing CO2 from Ethanol: Adding Economic Value and Jobs to Rural Economies and Communities While Reducing Emissions billion for the 1546-mile pipeline network. Annual operating expenses are estimated to be $85 million for capture and compression and $47 million for the pipeline system. The $2.67 billion capital investment and $131 million in annual operating costs would require a CO2 price of $47 per MT for a 10 percent return on investment and $60 per MT for a 15 percent return. Conclusion: Incentives Can Enhance Ethanol Carbon Capture Feasibility The two large-scale capture and transportation systems described in the scenarios above would require an oilfield CO2 price ranging from $42 to $60 per MT in order to recover capital and operating costs, plus a reasonable return on investment. Determining the actual economic feasibility of projects such as those analyzed in this paper involves more than simply comparing modeled cost estimates against projected CO2 sales and the value of potential incentives. Project development costs and uncertainties and market and investment risk not captured by the modeling will influence a developer’s decision whether to pursue a project and investors’ willingness to finance it and on what terms. However, within the context of existing demand for CO2 in the EOR industry, this analysis suggests that the economic viability of large-scale ethanol CO2 capture and transportation would be significantly enhanced by enactment of incentives such as a revamped federal 45Q tax credit currently proposed in Congress and potentially California’s LCFS policy, subject to the outcome of the ARB’s current rulemaking. Federal Policy Overview In analysis released last month, the IEA estimates that $850 billion was invested globally in low-carbon energy in 2016, but only $1.2 billion of that investment flowed into carbon capture.19 In the U.S. and other countries, carbon capture lacks incentives and other policies that have proven highly-effective in fostering private 19 Five Keys to Unlock CCS Investment, International Energy Agency, 2017, p. 3. investment in commercial deployment of wind, solar and other low and zero-carbon energy technologies, resulting in ongoing innovation and cost reductions. As the world leader in demonstrating carbon capture technologies in multiple industries, the U.S. is well- poised to scale up commercial deployment and bring down the costs of CO2 capture, compression and pipeline transport. However, as analysis of the economics of carbon capture from ethanol production in this paper shows, widespread deployment will not occur without the benefit of robust financial incentives and other policies to help bridge the cost gap and reduce the commercial risk to investors and developers of carbon capture and pipeline projects. Fortunately, passage of bipartisan legislation introduced in both the U.S. House and the Senate would go a long way toward providing carbon capture with financial incentives comparable to those that have long benefitted other low and zero-carbon energy technologies. Section 45Q Tax Credit At the federal level, the most important financial incentive for carbon capture under consideration is the Section 45Q Tax Credit for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration, which is awarded for every ton of CO2 captured and stored through EOR or other geologic storage. The 45Q tax credit is completely performance-based, meaning that credits can only be claimed for tons of CO2 that have been successfully captured, injected into an oilfield or other suitable geologic formation, and stored. Figure 7: States with Congressional Sponsors of 45Q Legislation Page 20 Prepared by the State CO2-EOR Deployment Work GroupPDF Image | Capturing and Utilizing CO2 from Ethanol
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