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Sustainable synthetic carbon based fuels for transport

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Sustainable synthetic carbon based fuels for transport ( sustainable-synthetic-carbon-based-fuels-transport )

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CHAPTER THREE Challenges and benefits for widespread adoption of synthetic biofuels and efuels 3.1 Costs 3.1.1 Efuel costs The current cost of efuels is estimated to be around €4.50/litre for diesel equivalent76 but this depends primarily on the cost of sustainable electricity. No industrial scale plant has yet been built, but several comprehensive studies on the future costs of efuels have been published using forecasts77 – 79. There is considerable divergence in these forecasts due to the wide variation in power costs, operation time, electrolyser costs, source of carbon dioxide and the capital interest rates used. For example, renewable power prices vary from about €25/MWh using solar in North Africa to about €50/MWh using wind in Europe in 2050. using these forecasts, Figure 7 was developed with a single price set and 6% interest rate to show the cost range of future efuels. The key drivers for the forecast cost reduction can be seen in Figure 8. Capital cost reduction is almost entirely from electrolysis, as illustrated by the analysis in Figure 9. Note that the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs are dependent on capital cost. 76. 77. 78. 79. German Energy Agency. 2017 The potential of electricity-based fuels for based fuels for low-emission transport emission transport in the Eu. See https://www.vda.de/en/services/Publications/%C2%ABe-fuels%C2%BB-study---the- potential-of-electricity-based-fuels-for-low-emission-transport-in-the-eu.html (accessed 17 April 2019). Prognos AG, DBFZ, uMSIChT. 2018 Status of and Perspectives for Liquid Energy Sources in the Energy Transition. See https://www.upei.org/all-news/download/519/421/17?method=view (accessed 18 April 2019). Agora Verkehrswende, Agora Energiewende, Frontier Economics. 2018 The Future Cost of Electricity-Based Synthetic Fuels. See https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin2/Projekte/2017/SynKost_2050/Agora_SynKost_Study_EN_ WEB.pdf (accessed 18 April 2019). Schmidt PR, Zittel W, Weindorf W, Raksha T. 2016 Renewables in Transport 2050: Empowering a sustainable mobility future with zero emission fuels from renewable electricity. See http://www.lbst.de/news/2016_docs/FVV_h1086_ Renewables-in-Transport-2050-Kraftstoffstudie_II.pdf (accessed 18 April 2019). 28 SuSTAINABLE SYNThETIC CARBON BASED FuELS FOR TRANSPORT – POLICY BRIEFING

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