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In addition to electrolyser costs, capital costs also consist of: • Carbon capture costs These vary depending on the carbon dioxide concentration and purity of the source. If a pure stream of carbon dioxide is available from an industrial process, for example a fermentation plant, then the capture costs are low, at around €10/tonne. Capturing carbon dioxide directly from the air, where the concentration is very low, is more expensive (example projects include Carbon Engineering85 and ClimeWorks86). The capital costs of these type of facilities at scale are highly uncertain today because only small scale units have been built thus far. • Fischer Tropsch synthesis costs Fischer Tropsch conversion technology is well developed at scale. Synthetic fuel plants, especially those based on biomass, tend to be much smaller in scale than current commercial facilities, and therefore cause upward pressure on the capital cost power unit output as economies of scale are lost. Overall, the capital costs for a Fischer Tropsch synthesis unit are in the region of €30 – 40k/barrels of oil equivalent/day87 and for an equivalent scale efuels Fischer Tropsch synthesis unit, the capital cost is in the region of €200k/barrels of oil equivalent/day, based on electrolyser costs of €1000/kW(electrical). Absolute capital costs are significant for efuels. For 2050, investment cost forecast estimates range from €200k to €400k/barrels/day88,89, therefore a 100,000 barrels/day plant would require capital investment of €20 – €40 billion. Jet fuel demand alone in Europe is forecast to be around 1.4 million barrels/day in 204090, requiring conversion plant capital of between €280 – 560 billion if all of that demand were to be met by efuels. The additional sustainable power requirements to make jet efuel for Europe would be between 1,400 and 2,100 TWh/year. For context in 2016, the total electricity generated in the Eu was around 3,000 TWh, of which 51% came from sustainable sources91. Without further development and scale up, efuels are unlikely to be economically competitive in the 2030 period without government support92. however, there are commercial operations targeting a price point much below the current cost, such as the Sunfire efuels plant in herøya in Norway, which is aiming at €2/litre (see Case Study 2). Without further development and scale up, efuels are unlikely to be economically competitive in the 2030 period without government support. 85. Climeworks. Our products. See https://climeworks.com/our-products/ (accessed 18 April 2019). 86. Op. cit., note 77 87. DimitriouI,Goldingayh,BridgwaterAV.2018Techno-economicanduncertaintyanalysisofBiomasstoLiquid(BTL)systems for transport fuel production. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 88, 160–175. (doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.02.023). 88. Op. cit., note 77 89. Op. cit., note 78 90. Op. cit., note 2 91. Eurostat see https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Electricity_production,_consumption_and_ market_overview#Electricity_generation (accessed 16 May 2019). 92. International Council on Clean Transportation. 2018 Decarbonization Potential of Electrofuel in the European union, White Paper. See https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Electrofuels_Decarbonization_Eu_20180920. pdf (accessed 17 April 2019). SuSTAINABLE SYNThETIC CARBON BASED FuELS FOR TRANSPORT – POLICY BRIEFING 31 CHAPTER THREEPDF Image | Sustainable synthetic carbon based fuels for transport
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