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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 1: Introduction electricity has improved. While the level of investment today remains very modest compared to the scale of the energy system, and deployment challenges are significant, the current level of attention has opened a genuine window of opportunity for policy and private-sector action. There are four main reasons for this positive prospect. 1) Greater attention to the deep emissions reductions that hydrogen can help deliver, especially in hard-to-abate sectors The number of countries establishing ambitious goals for greenhouse gas emissions reduction continues to increase, and with it the number of sectors considering the use of low-carbon hydrogen has risen. The 195 signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change agreed to raise their emissions reduction efforts towards net zero emissions from all sectors over the course of the century. In 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions would need to reach net zero around 2050 in a pathway consistent with limited global temperature increases to 1.5°C (IPCC, 2018). The European Union is considering net zero emissions as an objective for 2050 and others seem likely to do the same. The increased focus on reducing emissions to near zero by mid-century has brought into sharp relief the challenge of tackling hard-to-abate emissions sources. These emissions are in sectors and applications for which electricity is not currently the form of energy at the point of end use, and for which direct electricity-based solutions come with high costs or technical drawbacks.3 Four-fifths of total final energy demand by end users today is for carbon-containing fuels, not electricity. In addition, much of the raw material for chemicals and other products contains carbon today and generate CO2 emissions during their processing. Hard-to-abate emissions sources include aviation, shipping, iron and steel production, chemicals manufacture, high-temperature industrial heat, long-distance and long-haul road transport and, especially in dense urban environments or off-grid, heat for buildings. Rapid technological transformations in these sectors have made limited progress in the face of the costs of low-carbon options, their infrastructure needs, the challenges they pose to established supply chains, and ingrained habits. While significant financial and political commitments will be necessary to realise deep emissions cuts, there is an increasing sense of urgency on the part of governments and companies about the need to start developing appropriate solutions. As a low-carbon chemical energy carrier, hydrogen is a leading option for reducing these hard-to-abate emissions because it can be stored, combusted and combined in chemical reactions in ways that are similar to natural gas, oil and coal. Hydrogen can also technically be converted to “drop-in” low-carbon replacements for today’s fuels, which is particularly attractive for sectors with hard-to- abate emissions, especially if there are limits to the direct use of biomass and CCUS. 2) Hydrogen is seen as able to contribute to a wider range of policy objectives While interest in hydrogen continues to be strongly linked with climate change ambition, there has been a noticeable broadening of the policy objectives to which hydrogen can contribute. 3 For energy applications that directly use electricity today, confidence is growing in many regions that low-carbon electricity can be cost-competitively supplied to the grid or to off-grid communities, thus decarbonising these end uses without changing fuels. However, achieving a decarbonised electricity supply still faces major economic and technical challenges, in particular in the integration of variable renewable power output. PAGE | 23 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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