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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 1: Introduction produced from coal gasification with CCUS. Most of these projects are in North America, but there are also examples in France, Japan and Abu Dhabi. While some sell the captured CO2 for industrial uses, most store it underground, either via enhanced oil recovery or dedicated geological storage. While most of these projects received direct public support, including from research budgets, they involve public- and private-sector partners who have shown the technologies to be effective and have learned much about how to manage project risks and contractual considerations. Many stakeholders today share the opinion that technologies such as fuel cells, water electrolysers, hydrogen refuelling and hydrogen turbines are now mainly waiting for large-scale demand and standardisation and not further technological development. Fuel cell costs, in particular, are expected to greatly benefit from mass manufacturing (Chapter 5). However, significant challenges remain While the factors in favour of a sustained upswing in investment in hydrogen are much stronger and better aligned than in any prior period, significant challenges still need to be addressed. Overcoming these challenges will be central to launching the virtuous cycle for hydrogen that has benefited other clean energy technologies: (a) policy support and regulatory changes stimulate first movers in low-risk applications; (b) a positive track record attracts private finance and enables a policy shift from direct support to market-based incentives; (c) high and widespread expectations for deployment unlock public and private investment in long-lasting infrastructure and manufacturing; (d) the creation of a multi-billion dollar marketplace stimulates cost reductions through competition and innovation; (e) customers, investors and suppliers become reliant on the technology and each other, providing long-term stability. Policy makers and businesses around the world are currently working with a wide range of stakeholders to tackle challenges and reduce the risks that currently slow progress through the first two of these steps. The challenges can be grouped into three broad categories. Challenge 1) Policy and technology uncertainty Climate change ambition remains the single most important driver for widespread use of clean hydrogen. The speed with which governments will push the transition to low-carbon energy sources in different countries and sectors remains a major uncertainty. While low-carbon hydrogen can be attractive in the near term in certain applications, its major strength is its ability to help deliver very low emissions pathways and manage very high levels of variable renewable electricity. In the absence of clear, and ideally binding, commitments to sustainable and resilient energy systems in the long term, major financial commitments to hydrogen technologies and infrastructure are much less attractive. Policy frameworks that support revenue from low-carbon hydrogen projects in the near term are also required and, despite recent government activity, they are not fully developed in most countries and regions. In some countries this reflects the lack of overarching long-term energy strategies, but it also signifies technology uncertainty. Most applications for low-carbon hydrogen are not cost-competitive without direct government support. Yet the relative costs of producing hydrogen from different sources in different regions, and how they will compete in the future, are unclear. This makes it difficult to compare potential future hydrogen prices with those of alternatives such as solid-state batteries, pumped-storage hydropower, electric vehicles, biofuels and electrification of high-temperature heat, many of which have head starts and could reap the benefits of path dependency. In the case of fuel cells, the speed of cost reduction is a key factor, yet experts disagree on the relationship between the scale of fuel cell demand, cost and performance improvements. PAGE | 27 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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