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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 2: Producing hydrogen and hydrogen-based products Alkaline electrolyser PEM electrolyser SOEC electrolyser Today 2030 Long term Today 2030 Long- term Today 2030 Long term Electrical efficiency (%, LHV) CAPEX (USD/kWe) 63–70 65–71 70–80 56–60 63–68 67–74 74–81 77–84 77–90 650 200 2 800 800 500 500 400 ––––––––– 200 1 100 1400 850 700 1 800 1 500 900 5 600 2 800 1 000 Notes: LHV = lower heating value; m2/kWe = square metre per kilowatt electrical. No projections made for future operating pressure and temperature or load range characteristics. For SOEC, electrical efficiency does not include the energy for steam generation. CAPEX represents system costs, including power electronics, gas conditioning and balance of plant; CAPEX ranges reflect different system sizes and uncertainties in future estimates. Sources: Buttler and Spliethoff (2018), “Current status of water electrolysis for energy storage, grid balancing and sector coupling via power-to-gas and power-to-liquids: a review”; Agora Verkehrswende, Agora Energiewende and Frontier Economics (2018), The Future Cost of Electricity-Based Synthetic Fuels; NOW (2018), Studie IndWEDe Industrialisierung der Wasserelektrolyse in Deutschland: Chancen und Herausforderungen für nachhaltigen Wasserstoff für Verkehr, Strom und Wärme; Schmidt et al. (2017), “Future cost and performance of water electrolysis: An expert elicitation study”; FCH JU (2014), Development of Water Electrolysis in the European Union, Final Report; Element Energy (2018), “Hydrogen supply chain evidence base”. Figure 10. There has been an increase in new electrolysis installations over the last decade aimed at producing hydrogen from water, with PEM technology making significant inroads into the market. Geographically most of the projects are in Europe, although projects have also been started or announced in Australia, China and the Americas. The average unit size of these electrolyser additions has increased in recent years from 0.1 MWe in 2000–09 to 1.0 MWe in 2015–19, indicating a shift from small pilot and demonstration projects to commercial-scale applications. This should start to create economies of scale that will help to drive down capital costs and to scale up the supply chain of the electrolyser industry (Figure 10). Several projects under development have electrolyser sizes of 10MWe or above, and some projects with electrolyser sizes of 100 MWe or larger are now under discussion. Development of electrolyser capacity additions for energy purposes and their average unit size, 1990–2019 Note: Capacity additions refer to already installed capacity additions and are cumulated over the specified 5-year periods. Sources: IEA analysis based on Chehade et al. (2019), “Review and analysis of demonstration projects on Power-to-X pathways in the world”, IEA (2018), World Energy Investment, and the World Energy Council (2018), “Hydrogen an enabler of the Grand Transition” and data provided by IEA Hydrogen Technology Collaboration Programme. Global electrolyser capacity additions for energy purposes have been growing rapidly in recent years, and installations have been growing in size, providing cost reductions from economies of scale and learning effects. PAGE | 45 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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