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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 2: Producing hydrogen and hydrogen-based products corresponding to four times the United States’ current hydrogen demand – would require almost 100% of its technical biomass potential, but only 6% of its wind power, and less than 1% of its solar power potential (Ruth, Jadun and Pivovar, 2017). Combining hydrogen production from biomass with carbon capture and storage could, however, be an option to create so-called “negative emissions”, which may have a role to play in the future.11 Comparison between alternative hydrogen production pathways In the near term – that is, until 2030 – the cost advantage of fossil fuels is likely to continue in most places, with hydrogen from natural gas without CCUS costing in the range of USD 1–2/kgH2, depending on local gas prices.12 Except in the case of hydrogen produced from coal, fuel costs are the biggest single component of hydrogen production costs (Figure 16). Future hydrogen costs will therefore largely be influenced by electricity and gas costs, or parameters influencing these costs such as conversion efficiencies. Electrolysis production costs can also be sensitive to CAPEX requirements, in particular if plants are operating at low full load hours. Figure 16. Hydrogen production costs for different technology options, 2030 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Combined sensitivity CO2 price sensitivity CAPEX and OPEX sensitivity Fuel cost sensitivity WACC sensitivity CO2 price Fuel costs OPEX CAPEX Electrolysis Electrolysis grid renewable Natural gas without CCUS Natural gas with CCUS Coal without CCUS Coal with CCUS Notes: WACC = weighted average cost of capital. Assumptions refer to Europe in 2030. Renewable electricity price = USD 40/MWh at 4 000 full load hours at best locations; sensitivity analysis based on +/-30% variation in CAPEX, OPEX and fuel costs; +/-3% change in default WACC of 8% and a variation in default CO2 price of USD 40/tCO2 to USD 0/tCO2 and USD 100/tCO2. More information on the underlying assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. In the near term, hydrogen production from fossil fuels will remain the most cost-competitive option in most cases. 11 By combining the use of bioenergy and CCUS, CO2 formed during bioenergy conversion processes can be captured and injected into long-term geological storage. This provides the possibility to effectively remove CO2 from the atmosphere while producing energy. 12 Just taking into account the LHV energy content of 1 kgH2, i.e. ignoring any later uses of hydrogen, a cost of USD 1/kgH2 corresponds to USD 30/MWh, or in barrels of oil equivalent to almost USD 50 per barrel (bbl). PAGE | 52 IEA. All rights reserved. USD/kgH2PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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