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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 2: Producing hydrogen and hydrogen-based products For electricity-based pathways, the largest cost component for hydrogen-based products is typically electricity, accounting for about 40–70% of the production cost of different hydrogen-based products. 15 An electricity price of USD 20/MWh alone is equivalent to USD 60–70/bbl when used for liquid hydrocarbon production and USD 10–12/MBtu of methane.16 These prices are already close to the price range of fossil fuel options even without adding CAPEX and OPEX, CO2 feedstock cost and other costs. Reducing the cost of electricity is therefore an important goal, together with increasing the overall efficiency of the conversion chain (Figure 20). CO2 feedstock costs are an important further cost component in the case of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels. They can vary significantly, depending on the availability of suitable CO2 sources. Costs may be low if pure CO2 is readily available as a by-product of a production process such as the manufacture of bioethanol, but can be much higher. CO2 feedstock costs of USD 30/tCO2 translate for synthetic diesel into a cost of USD 13/bbl; and CO2 feedstock costs of USD 100/tCO2 into a cost of USD 42/bbl. However, whether a producer of CO2 would be willing to sell it to a synthetic fuel manufacturer at close to the cost of capture would depend on the prevailing CO2 emissions price or the level of any competing financial benefit for sending the CO2 to long-term geological storage, if available. When the production costs of different electricity-based pathways are compared, the costs for ammonia come out as lower than those for synthetic hydrocarbons (Figure 22). Synthetic hydrocarbons benefit, however, from the existing fossil fuel-based infrastructure for transmission and distribution, which means that it is cheaper to transport them to end users. They also have a greater number of established end uses. The use of ammonia is so far limited to its application as a feedstock in the chemical industry, and value chains for using ammonia as a fuel in the energy sector are virtually non-existent today. High CO2 prices (or equivalent policies discouraging fossil fuel use) would be needed for synthetic hydrocarbon fuels to become competitive with fossil fuel alternatives. If, for example, synthetic diesel can be produced at a cost of USD150/bbl, a CO2 price of USD 180/tCO2, or equivalent policy measure, would be needed for synthetic diesel to become competitive with fossil diesel at USD 75/bbl (Figure 23). The high level of equivalent CO2 prices that would be needed for synthetic hydrocarbon fuels from electricity to compete with fossil fuels suggests that the use of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels at a larger scale is unlikely to happen in the near term. The economics of hydrogen-based fuels and feedstocks does, however, depend on the specific local conditions and the configuration of the different process components, as illustrated in Box 6 for the case of ammonia production at different locations in China. 15 In case of low CO2 feedstock costs in Figure 22. 16 Ranges reflect different electrolyser efficiencies. PAGE | 61 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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