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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 4: Present and potential industrial uses of hydrogen Figure 36. 50 40 30 20 10 fuel production. However, hydrogen demand is also a function of inherent sulphur content in crude oils. The average quality of crude oil supply has been getting lighter and sweeter in recent years, due primarily to surging US tight oil output, and this is likely to moderate the need for hydrogen to some degree. Under current trends, overall hydrogen demand in refineries is set to grow by 7% to 41 MtH2/yr in 2030. Beyond 2030 current trends and policies suggest the pace of hydrogen demand growth to slow down, as the scope to tighten product quality standards decreases and as oil demand for transport fuels is affected by a combination of efficiency improvements and electrification. Refiners are also likely to increase the efficiency of hydrogen recovery from waste refinery gases, lowering requirements for additional hydrogen production. Refinery hydrogen demand would decline in a scenario compatible with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, with the impact of declining oil demand more than offsetting that of higher hydrogen intensity. Irrespective of the future trajectory of global energy demand, one common aspect is the dominant share of existing refineries in projected hydrogen demand. There is already sufficient refining capacity globally to fulfil the expected need for oil products. Together with the long lifetime of refineries, this limits the scope for substantial addition of new refining capacity. As a result, some 80–90% of cumulative on-purpose hydrogen supply (including both dedicated on- site production and merchant procurement) between today and 2030 would come from existing refineries in both scenarios (Figure 36). Future hydrogen demand in oil refining under two different pathways In line with current trends In line with the Paris Agreement 50 40 30 20 10 02018 02018 2022 2026 2030 On-purpose supply (new refineries) 2022 Refinery by-product 2026 On-purpose supply (existing refineries) 2030 Note: On-purpose supply refers to both dedicated on-site production and merchant procurement. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Future hydrogen demand in the refining sector comes mostly from today’s existing capacity. Meeting future hydrogen demand in oil refining while reducing emissions Hydrogen production – unless supplied as a by-product of refining operations – currently results in considerable CO2 emissions. Globally the production of hydrogen for use in refineries contributes some 230 MtCO2/yr emissions, which is around 20% of total refinery emissions. PAGE | 95 IEA. All rights reserved. MtH2/yr MtH2/yrPDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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