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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 4: Present and potential industrial uses of hydrogen Demand and emissions are all set to rise in future. If future demand growth is met using coal, which is widely used without CCUS to produce hydrogen in countries such as China, the level of CO2 emissions would further increase. Producing hydrogen in a cleaner way is therefore vital to achieving a significant reduction in emissions from refining operations. Other key measures – such as energy efficiency and fuel switching away from emission-intensive fuels – have already been widely adopted in many refineries, limiting opportunities for further emissions reduction. Against this background, together with sizeable demand already existing today, the refining industry offers a potential early market for low-carbon hydrogen. Cost competitiveness of cleaner pathways There are two main cleaner pathways to hydrogen production for refineries: equipping coal- or natural gas-based hydrogen production facilities with CCUS; and using electrolytic hydrogen from low-carbon electricity. Given that the bulk of future hydrogen demand comes from existing refineries and that most refineries are already equipped with SMR units, natural gas with CCUS offers a more obvious route to low-carbon hydrogen than does renewables- based electrolysis. The incremental costs for the production of low-carbon hydrogen are limited to CCUS facilities, which makes natural gas with CCUS more competitive than electricity-based options, and capturing CO2 emissions from an SMR unit represents one of the lowest-cost opportunities to apply CCUS in a refinery because much of this CO2 is emitted in a highly concentrated stream. However, despite the continued decline of technology costs for CCUS, the large-scale adoption of CCUS at hydrogen production units in refineries needs a helping hand from policy makers, especially given the tight margins and highly competitive nature of the refining industry. Introducing CCUS would add an incremental cost of some USD 0.25–0.5/barrel, which is higher than today’s carbon price levels (zero to USD 0.1/barrel).25 This implies that refiners are likely to be inclined to pay CO2 prices rather than to direct effort to capturing and storing CO2. Higher carbon prices, or equivalent policy incentives, would change the picture. A carbon price higher than USD 50/tCO2, for example, would make natural gas with CCUS economically attractive in most regions and could trigger a wider deployment of CCUS at SMR facilities (Figure 37). In the United States a tax incentive known as “45Q” is worth up to USD 50/tCO2 for CCUS operations online by 2026. The case for investment would be further strengthened if captured CO2 could be sold to industrial users or upstream oil companies for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Low-carbon fuel standards could also help spur CCUS: standards of this kind have already been introduced in Canada, Europe and some US states, including California (Box 8). 25 The incremental costs for CCUS installation are also higher than the 2030 carbon price levels envisaged in the IEA New Policies Scenario, which are around USD 0.2/barrel. PAGE | 96 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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