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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 4: Present and potential industrial uses of hydrogen Figure 39. 50 40 30 20 10 Hydrogen demand for primary chemical production for existing applications under current trends 25 20 15 10 5 Fertiliser MTO/MTA Industrial applications 00 2000 2018e 2030 2050 Ammonia 2000 2018e 2030 2050 Methanol Notes: MTO = methanol-to-olefins; MTA = methanol-to-aromatics. Industrial applications for methanol include current fuel additive uses (e.g. methyl-tert-butyl-ether) and thermoset plastics (e.g. phenol formaldehyde). Industrial applications for ammonia include explosives (e.g. ammonium nitrate) and plastics (e.g. urea formaldehyde). Demand figures for 2030 and 2050 are consistent with those of the Reference Technology Scenario (IEA, 2018b), in which current trends are maintained. Data for 2018 are estimates based on previous years’ figures from the sources below. Sources: IFA (2019), International Fertilizer Association Database; WoodMackenzie (2018), Methanol Production and Supply Database. Hydrogen demand for ammonia and methanol for existing applications is set to rise. Conversely, demand for ammonia and methanol could rise further if these chemicals were to become established as energy carriers for the transmission, distribution and storage of hydrogen, facilitating its use in new applications, or if they were to be used as fuels in their own right (see Chapters2 and3). If these new applications were to become widespread, the chemical sector could evolve to share the role that refineries play today in providing energy to downstream users. Without any change in the current economics or regulation of production, current growth trajectories for chemical products are likely to lead to a growth in hydrogen production from natural gas and coal without the application of CCUS. Projecting forward current trends, this growth would cause total direct CO2 emissions from ammonia and methanol production to rise by around 20% between 2018 and 2030. Meeting future hydrogen demand in the chemical sector while reducing emissions The global production of ammonia and methanol currently generates CO2 emissions of around 630MtCO2/yr.29 The global average direct emissions intensity of ammonia production is 2.4 tonnes of CO2 per tonne (tCO2/t), with average intensities for major regions in the range of 1.6–2.7 tCO2/t. New gas-based plants in the Asia Pacific region tend to be at the lower end of this range, whereas pure coal-based production (around 4 tCO2/t), widespread in China, constitutes the most CO2-intensive production route. For methanol the global average figure 29 This excludes the approximately 130 MtCO2/yr of concentrated CO2 streams that are separated and utilised to manufacture urea. A large proportion of this embedded CO2 is re-emitted in the agricultural sector when urea is applied to soils. PAGE | 102 IEA. All rights reserved. MtH2/yr MtH2/yrPDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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