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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 4: Present and potential industrial uses of hydrogen Figure 42. 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 (Chapter 2). The key variables affecting the economics of production via electrolysis and natural gas with CCUS are natural gas and electricity prices (Figure 42). Variation of ammonia and methanol production costs with fuel price in the long-term Ammonia 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Electricity cost (USD/MWh) NG unabated (high) NG unabated (low) NG w/CCUS (high) NG w/CCUS (low) Electrolysis (high) Electrolysis (low) NG unabated (high) NG unabated (low) NG w/CCUS (high) NG w/CCUS (low) Electrolysis (high) Electrolysis (low) Methanol 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Electricity cost (USD/MWh) Notes: The levelised cost includes the cost of CAPEX on core process equipment, fixed OPEX, fuel and feedstock costs, and the cost of capturing, transporting and storing CO2. Best practice energy performance is assumed for natural gas-based routes. Electrolyser CAPEX range = USD 455–894/kWe. Electrolyser efficiency range = 64–74% on an LHV basis. More information on the assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. At low electricity prices, electrolysis is the best option for producing low-carbon ammonia and methanol, but natural gas with CCUS is more competitive at higher electricity prices. Electrolysis becomes competitive with natural gas with CCUS at electricity prices in the range of USD 15–50/MWh for ammonia and in the range of USD 10–65/MWh for methanol, on the assumption of gas prices of USD 3–10/MBtu.31 In order to compete with natural gas without CCUS at these gas prices, however, electricity prices would need to drop to USD 10–40/MWh for ammonia and USD 5–50/MWh for methanol. While the upper end of these cost-competitive electricity price ranges show promise for alternative pathways, the economics in most regions are such that policy support is likely to be 31 This assumes that electrolyser CAPEX declines by 50% and efficiency increases by 15%, with no corresponding improvement in the efficiency of natural gas conversion or CCUS. PAGE | 107 IEA. All rights reserved. Levelised cost (USD/t) Levelised cost (USD/t)PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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