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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power Tucson-ix 35 was introduced in 2013 and the Toyota Mirai in 2014, there is a need to further reduce costs and build up refuelling station networks concurrently with vehicle uptake if more automakers are to be attracted to the market. The theoretical potential for future use of hydrogen in road transport is very large. Any road transport mode can technically be powered using hydrogen, either directly using fuel cells or via hydrogen-based fuels in internal combustion engines. As an indication of the size of this market, if all the 1 billion cars, 190 million trucks and 25 million buses currently on the road globally were replaced by FCEVs, hydrogen demand would be as high as 300 MtH2/yr, more than four times current global demand for pure hydrogen (Figure 52). The theoretical potential future demand is even larger. Over the next 10 years to 2030, oil demand from road transport is set to grow by 10% without strong action to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. In particular, this would be driven by demand for trucks in emerging economies, but also rising car ownership. Car ownership in countries like India and even China is well below that of industrialised countries such as the European Union and the United States. US per-capita car ownership is 25 times higher than India’s. Figure 52. 2 000 1 600 1 200 800 400 0 Road vehicle fleet growth to 2030 under current trends 200 160 120 80 40 0 Buses Other European Union China North America Cars Today Cars 2030 Medium- Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Light and heavy- commercial duty trucks trucks Today Medium- The road vehicle fleet’s current fuel demand is large, and is set to grow with demand for personal mobility by car and goods delivery by truck, particularly in developing and emerging economies. While the theoretical potential is very large, actual deployment will depend very strongly on the interactions between vehicle costs, fuel costs and policies, as well as the cost of alternatives and evolving driving habits in different countries. Cost competitiveness of direct and indirect uses of hydrogen in road transport The following section discusses the contribution of various different components to the cost of hydrogen FCEVs. It does so as a means of identifying key opportunities for cost reductions and of understanding the most promising applications for FCEVs compared with other options, in particular BEVs. It should be noted, however, that from the perspective of consumers, the cost of the vehicle is just one of many decision criteria. Car buyers tend to base vehicle purchase decisions on a number of criteria, including performance, comfort, perceived reliability and Buses Light and heavy- commercial duty trucks trucks 2030 PAGE | 130 IEA. All rights reserved. Million vehicles Million vehiclesPDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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