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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power The above analysis suggests that BEVs and FCEVs could complement each other as alternative options satisfying different consumers, with FCEVs offering the best opportunities for vehicles driven at long ranges, with fast refuelling requirements and in regions with access to cheap hydrogen. Furthermore, it suggests that once a hydrogen refuelling infrastructure has been built out, light-duty FCEVs with different configurations (e.g. fuel cell range extenders) could take advantage of cost and performance improvements in both fuel cells and batteries. Total cost of ownership of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles The heavy-duty long-haul segment, including trucks and intercity buses (or “coaches”), offers strong prospects for hydrogen FCEVs because it calls for long range and high power requirements. As a result, heavy-duty FCEVs tend to be more immediately competitive against BEVs than in the case of cars. The direct electrification of regional bus operations and heavy- duty trucking for long-distance freight both face major challenges with larger battery capacity, long charging times and high power requirements that translate into payload loss and additional recharging infrastructure costs. Fuel cellelectric trucks overcome some of these challenges. In the case of heavy-duty long-haul trucks, fuel cell costs are higher than light-duty vehicle applications, mainly as a result of high durability requirements. This currently necessitates increased catalyst loading, translating into higher costs. Future fuel cell system costs for heavy- duty trucks are estimated at USD 95/kW (for a production volume of 100 000 units per year) (US DOE, 2019). Even with current fuel cell costs, FCEVs could in general be competitive against BEVs in heavy-duty applications at ranges of more than 600 km if hydrogen could be delivered at less than USD 7/kgH2, although the exact hydrogen price at which they become competitive depends on overall annual mileage and other operational characteristics. Figure 56. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Current and future total cost of ownership of fuel/powertrain alternatives in long-haul trucks FCEV BEV Today Diesel ICE FCEV BEV Hybrid catenary Diesel Hybrid Synthetic fuel (air capture) Synthetic fuel (best case) Low utilisation of infrastructure Refuelling, charging Electricity, fuel Operations and maintenance Battery, fuel cell Base truck cost Notes: The y-axis intercept of the figure corresponds to base vehicle “glider” plus minor component costs. Infrastructure covers stations, charging points and catenary lines. More information on the assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Fuel costs make up about half of the total cost of ownership for heavy-duty trucks, so the focus for making them competitive should be on bringing down the delivered price of hydrogen. Long term PAGE | 137 IEA. All rights reserved. Total cost of ownership (USD/km)PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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