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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power Powertrain and fuel options for decarbonising heavy-duty long-haul trucking include FCEVs, battery electric trucks, dynamic charging (catenaries are the most commercially advanced and lowest-cost option on existing roads)49 and conventional diesel hybrids using synthetic fuels (or advanced biofuels). Figure 56 considers diesel hybrids with 25 km of electric range on catenaries. A range of low-carbon powertrain options could conceivably co-exist: plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, BEVs with or without fuel cell range extenders and FCEVs of different configurations could be designed and ordered to cater to different mission profiles. Bringing down fuel cell costs to USD 95/kW could make hydrogen fuel cell trucks in the heavy-duty segment competitive with diesel hybrid trucks at a hydrogen price of around USD7/kgH2, compared with the price of USD5/kg currently needed to make them competitive with an ICE truck running on diesel. For fuel cell electric trucks to be competitive with electric road systems or battery electric trucks at a range of less than 500 km, however, the hydrogen price would need to be less than USD 5/kg H2. Because of the limited size of the truck market, reaching this fuel cell cost target may not be feasible by deployment of fuel cells in trucks alone and will most likely rely on substantial deployment of fuel cells in cars. Fuel cell production for small mobile equipment, such as forklifts, may also help to bring down costs, but since the power requirements of this equipment is typically less than one- third that of a car, high production volumes of roughly 3 000 units per year would be needed to achieve cost reductions below USD 80/kW. In the case of trucks (and also buses), the cost contribution from the infrastructure could be reduced by the operation of a “hub-and-spoke” model: a dedicated fleet operating on fixed routes could refuel at a single centralised hydrogen refuelling station. Since refineries and industrial clusters are often co-located at ports, port operations (and handling equipment) offer further attractive initial markets. The efficiency of these strategies has been demonstrated by the rapid adoption of hydrogen fuel cell electric buses and trucks in China, where the business case for intensive medium- and heavy-duty operations has been strengthened considerably by success in accessing low-cost hydrogen and achieving high utilisation rates of refuelling stations. The maritime sector: Ships and ports The maritime sector is an important consumer of oil products, accounting for around 5% of global oil demand. This section of the report focuses on international shipping, which is the cheapest way to move long-distance freight. By volume around 90% of global physical trade in goods is by sea, of which one-third is energy products, in particular oil products (IMO, 2014). About 80% of fuel use in the maritime sector is in international shipping, of which 90% is used for maritime freight. As a result, international shipping is an important contributor to climate change: it is responsible for around 2.5% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. As it uses heavy fuel oil, it also has large detrimental effects on air quality, notably around ports. Hydrogen, mostly in the form of hydrogen-based fuels, is a leading option for tackling these challenges in international shipping. One advantage of these applications is that they offer the opportunity to address not only emissions during sea transport, but also those arising from port operations, making use of synergies with forklifts, trucks and goods movement in 49 Catenary lines could provide energy to a diverse range of powertrains, including diesel hybrid electric vehicles, FCEVs and BEVs. However, they require the installation of substations and overhead catenary lines as well as retractable pantographs on trucks, increasing the investment risk. It is not clear how these costs would compare with the costs of fuel cell trucks or indeed battery electric trucks. Much like hydrogen, with a high enough utilisation rate of energy provision infrastructure, these costs can be offset by the cost and operational benefits of smaller batteries. PAGE | 138 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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