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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power Figure 58. 250 200 150 100 50 0 Break-even carbon price for ammonia to be competitive with fossil fuels Oil price USD 100/bbl USD 80/bbl USD 60/bbl USD 40/bbl 20 35 50 65 80 95 Electricity price (USD/MWh) Note: More information on the assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. For a bulk carrier, policies equivalent to a carbon price of USD 40–230/tCO2 would be needed to make ICE engines running on ammonia competitive with fuel oil. The break-even carbon price is highly sensitive to both the oil price and electricity price. Rail Rail is already the most electrified mode of transport. Although the percentage share of electrified tracks is still expanding in most countries, further electrification of rail networks is likely to come up against diminishing returns on investment, since highly utilised lines are the first to be electrified (IEA, 2019b). In France and Germany, for example, electrified lines now carry over 80% of traffic, even though less than half of the railway network has been electrified (European Commission, 2016). Beyond bi-mode diesel-electric options, several technologies offer zero tailpipe emissions on non-electrified tracks and the industry seems set to move towards these in the coming decades. The most innovative of such technologies are battery electric trains and hydrogen fuel cell trains. Battery electric trains with smaller batteries can also be used on partially electrified lines, enabling electrification costs to be sharply reduced by missing out those portions of track that are most difficult to electrify (such as bridges or tunnels). Plans involving hydrogen trains already exist in a number of countries, with at least three companies working to supply them. Germany intends to expand the fleet of hydrogen trains to 14 by 2021 and 5 federal states have signed a letter of intent to purchase 60 trains from Alstom, with 27 ordered as of May 2019 (Schmidt, 2017). Two hydrogen trains that can travel almost 800 km a day on a single refuelling already operate in Lower Saxony in Germany (Alstom, 2018). Austria’s Zillertalbahn plans to deploy five hydrogen trains by 2022 for a total investment of almost USD 175 million. The UK government is supporting development of the first hydrogen trains by 2022 (Wiseman, 2019). The French government is similarly considering 2022 as the target for the first hydrogen train to be on the rails. Japan Rail East also has a project underway, in partnership with Toyota (Kyodo ,2018). Under optimistic assumptions about fuel cell cost reductions, hydrogen trains could become competitive against other passenger services options with low frequency of utilisation PAGE | 142 IEA. All rights reserved. Break-even carbon price (USD/tonne)PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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