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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power Figure 62. Break even for hydrogen CCGT against other flexible power generation options 10 8 6 4 2 0 Biogas cheaper Biogas plant, USD 14/MBtu Natural gas w/ CCUS, USD 7/MBtu Natural gas w/o CCUS, USD 7/MBtu Natural gas without CCS cheaper 0% 10% Hydrogen cheaper Hydrogen cheaper Hydrogen cheaper 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Load factor Natural gas with CCS cheaper Notes: Arrows indicate areas where hydrogen costs and load factors mean that competing generation technologies or hydrogen are cheaper. CAPEX = USD 1 000/kW for CCGT without CCS and hydrogen-fired CCGT, USD 1 870/kW for CCGT with CCS, USD 2 000/kW for biogas engine; gross efficiencies (LHV) = 61% CCGT without CCS and hydrogen-fired CCGT, 53% CCGT with CCS, 45% biogas engine. Economic lifetime = 25 years. More information on the assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Hydrogen may be cost-competitive with natural gas with CCS and biogas as a flexible generation option, particularly at low load factors. The competitiveness of hydrogen-fired power plants with natural gas-fired power generation for load balancing and peak load generation depends on the gas price and the potential level of carbon prices. Looking, for example, at a load factor of 15% and a natural gas price of USD 7/MBtu, the CO2 price would have to be USD 100/tCO2 to make hydrogen-fired power generation at a hydrogen price of USD 1.5/kgH2 competitive with natural gas. If the hydrogen price was USD 2/kg H2, the CO2 price would have to be USD 175/tCO2 to make electricity from hydrogen competitive against natural gas (Figure 63). For illustrative purposes, if 1% of the globally installed gas-fired power capacity (or 25 GW) was fired by hydrogen (or ammonia) in 2030, this would result in annual electricity generation of around 90 TWh (40% load factor) and hydrogen demand of 4.5 MtH2 (or 30 Mt of ammonia). This would help to scale up demand and the supply infrastructure for hydrogen, since the annual hydrogen demand of 25 GW of hydrogen power plants would correspond to the annual consumption of around 23 million fuel cell vehicles. Even a single 500 MW power plant would create a hydrogen demand equivalent to 455 000 fuel cell vehicles or the heat demand of 221 000 homes in the United Kingdom, and might therefore provide an opportunity to create a hub for other potential hydrogen users, such as transport or buildings. 70% 80% 90% 100% PAGE | 157 IEA. All rights reserved. USD/kgH2PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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