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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 6: Policies to boost momentum in key value chains The wide range of applications for hydrogen varies in long-term potential and near-term opportunity The potential applications for hydrogen reviewed in this report cover almost all facets of energy demand in the modern economy. They are not all equal in their scale, maturity or potential contribution to deep emission reductions in their sectors. Targets and existing and planned projects around the world show that the speed of deployment in coming years is expected to vary widely between sectors. Some, such as aviation, shipping, iron and steel and chemicals, have very high levels of potential future demand for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels and face few competitors from other low-carbon technologies. The likely lead times mean that there is a critical need to accelerate development in the near term in order to meet long-term climate objectives, but the opportunity for deployment by 2030 is limited (Table 10). Other sectors offer opportunities for more rapid near-term deployment. Realising specific near-term opportunities for hydrogen at scale will help to boost low-carbon technologies generally, for example through the application of CCUS to refinery hydrogen production and the development of business models for the operation of electrolysers and hydrogen storage in ways that benefit the power grid. Table 10. Applications for low-carbon hydrogen classified by the theoretical size of the 2030 opportunity and the long-term potential Type of Application Size of the 2030 Long-term application opportunity (ktH2/yr) potential scale Chemicals (ammonia and methanol) Oil refineries and biofuels Buildings (conversion to 100% hydrogen) Passenger vehicles Iron and steel (conversion to 100% hydrogen) Electricity storage Industrial high-temperature heat Over 100 Medium Over 100 High Iron and steel (blending in DRI) Buildings (blending in the gas grid) Notes: Long-term potential scale is a judgement of the technical potential and the extent to which hydrogen faces competition from other low-carbon options in this application. The size of the 2030 opportunity reflects announced plans and targets for scale-up of clean hydrogen in these applications around the world. Source: IEA 2019, all rights reserved. Based on current plans, low-carbon hydrogen demand could pass 100 ktH2/yr in existing industrial applications and gas grids by 2030; iron and steel, aviation and shipping have longer-term potential. 10-100 Over 100 High Over 100 Low Road freight Over 100 High Over 100 Medium 10-100 High Under 10 High Under 10 Low Low Aviation and maritime transport Under 10 High Flexible and back-up power generation Under 10 Medium PAGE | 169 IEA. All rights reserved. Major New hydrogen uses for a clean energy system hydrogen uses todayPDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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