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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 6: Policies to boost momentum in key value chains The costs and avoided emissions of blending depend on hydrogen costs, natural gas costs and the CO2 intensity of hydrogen production (Figure 67). At prevailing natural gas costs of USD 5/MBtu, a 5% blend (by volume) of hydrogen costing USD 4/kg would increase delivered gas costs by around 8%,55 but the impact in terms of larger-scale production and efficiencies should reduce the costs of hydrogen in the future. If the hydrogen and natural gas have no associated upstream greenhouse gas emissions, such a 5% volume blend would reduce the CO2 intensity of delivered gas by 2%. Figure 67. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0% USD 7/Mbtu Cost and emissions intensity of blending hydrogen into the gas network at different blend shares Cost of delivered blended gas Emissions intensity of blended gas 10% USD 5/Mbtu 20% USD 3/Mbtu 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 Zero emission Notes: Cost of delivered blended gas with assumed USD 4/kgH2, emissions intensity of “baseline SMR” = 91.0 kgCO2/GJ H2, “60% lower” = 36.4 kgCO2/GJ H2 and ”zero emission” = 0 kgCO2/GJ H2. Blend shares on a volumetric basis. Source: IEA 2018. all rights reserved. The cost and emissions reduction from hydrogen blending depend on the source of hydrogen and gas price. A 5% blend of low-carbon hydrogen could reduce CO2 emissions by 2%. Conversion to 100% hydrogen The conversion of existing gas grids to supply 100% hydrogen would lower distribution costs for hydrogen by facilitating much larger-scale supply; it would also enable sources of pure hydrogen demand (for example transport and industrial users) to connect to a common network. The existing grid is not the only possible way to develop a future hydrogen transmission and distribution infrastructure, but it is likely to be the most cost-effective, especially at the distribution level.56 Some investment might be needed in key components of the grid, especially on the distribution network, but this should be technically and economically feasible 55 Cost increases for end users could be lower, depending on tax treatment, pricing models and taxpayer support. 56 Costs of repurposing plastic distribution pipelines to carry 100% hydrogen are uncertain, but estimated at USD 14 000/km (H21, 2018), whereas new hydrogen distribution pipelines costs range from USD 130 000/km to USD 2 700 000/km, depending on aspects such as labour costs and population density (SGI, 2017). The needs to oversize pipelines in anticipation of future demand growth would add to upfront costs. 0% 10% 60% lower 20% Baseline SMR PAGE | 183 IEA. All rights reserved. USD per Mbtu kgCO2 per MMBtuPDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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