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Mapping the NFT revolution

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Mapping the NFT revolution ( mapping-nft-revolution )

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www.nature.com/scientificreports/ Feature β coefficients All Art Collectible Games Metaverse Utility Other const. kbuyer kseller PRbuyer PRseller presale Medianprice visPCA1 visPCA2 visPCA visPCA visPCA #NFTs #Collections R2 adj −0.029 0.030 −0.018 0.022 −0.166 −0.211 0.129 0.077 0.302 0.367 0.029 −0.041 0.769 0.711 0.098 0.153 −0.120 −0.130 0.019 0.027 0.040 0.028 −0.086 −0.181 0.210 2.054 0.149 −0.032 −0.132 −0.078 −0.010• −0.207 0.198• −0.347 −0.241• 0.336 −0.382 0.459 0.465 0.251• 0.478 0.687 −1.136 0.021 −0.817 −0.181 −1.292 −0.037• −0.911 −0.116 0.071• 0.301 314 5297 0.000 0.026 0.162 0.317 −0.031 −0.066 0.079 0.023 0.970 0.815 0.049 0.174 0.166 0.206 0.009• 0.046• 0.436 0.175 4 −0.044 −0.064 −0.669 3 0.063 −0.003• 0.203 0.112• 0.130 −0.018• 0.102 0.296 78,848 2693 5 0.063 0.018 0.276 407,549 251,369 69,015 3307 114 73 0.6 0.589 0.709 48 12 6 3054 0.535 0.408 0.562 0.44 Table 1. Secondary sale price prediction. Linear regressions to predict the NFTs’ median secondary sale price one month after their primary sale from three families of features: centrality on the trader network (k, PR), history of sales in the NFT’s collection (namely prior probability of secondary sale presale and median sale price 1 week before the sale medianprice), and visual features (visPCAi). Regression models were fit to different categories of NFTs independently. For each category, the number of NFTs and collections it contains is reported. The R2 is a measure of goodness of fit, and it quantifies the proportion of the data variance adj explained by the model. The p-values of all β coefficients are < 0.01 except for those marked with • , which are all > 0.05. Scientific Reports | It is important to highlight the main limitations of our study, which represent also directions for future work. First, we gathered data from a variety of online NFT marketplaces and not directly from the Ethereum or WAX blockchains, so that we have likely missed a number of “independent” NFT producers. Second, we mostly adopted an accepted categorisation for the NFTs, which includes a number of arbitrary decisions and could however be further refined (as every categorization). Third, since our primary goal was to provide a general overview of the market, we did not extensively explore all the available methods e.g., for the features extraction from images33 and their clustering in a lower-dimensional space34, machine learning for price prediction35, or market modelling36. We also did not consider collective attention as measured e.g. from social media or Wikipedia, which can be a further source of information about market behaviour37–39. Fourth, we considered mostly the Ethereum and WAX blockchains, but several other platforms offer smart contracts and NFTs. Finally, our price prediction exercise did not include information about the creator of the (digital) object associated to the NFTs. While this is due mainly to the dataset, and in many cases the identity of the creator is not available or does not exist (e.g., for AI generated images), it is likely that in certain contexts, and specifically for art, this can be an important aspect to consider. Overall, NFTs are a new tool that satisfies some of the needs of creators, users, and collectors of a large class of digital and non-digital objects. As such, they are probably here to stay or, at least, they represent a first step towards new tools to deal with property and provenance of such assets. We anticipate that our study will help accelerate new research on NFT in a broad array of disciplines, including economics, law, cultural evolution, art history, computational social science, and computer science. The results will also help practitioners make sense of a rapidly evolving landscape and inform the design of more efficient marketplaces as well as the associated regulation. Data and methods We summarize our data collection below and provide a detailed description of our data manipulations in “SI”. Sales data collection. Our dataset includes only transactions representing purchases of NFTs, whose ownership change following that transaction. We exclude from our analysis any transactions representing the minting of NFTs or bids during an auction. We track different cryptocurrencies. Etherum blockchain data for the collections SuperRare, Makersplace, Knownorigin, Cryptopunks, and Asyncart were shared by NonFungi- ble Corporation24, a company that tracks historical NFT sales data to build NFT valuations. Other Ethereum blockchain data were downloaded from four open-source APIs: CryptoKitties sales40, Gods-Unchained41, Decentraland42, and OpenSea43. With OpenSea that allows trading in multiple cryptocurrencies. We also moni- tored the WAX blockchain, through tracking transactions in the Atomic API44. We group NFTs into six categories: Art consisting of digital artworks such as images, videos, or GIFs; Col- lectible representing items of interest to collectors; Games including digital object used in competitive games; Metaverse consisting of pieces of virtual worlds; Utility representing items having a specific function; and Other including the remaining collections. More details on the NFT categorization are explained in “SI”. The final, (2021) 11:20902 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-00053-8 9 Vol.:(0123456789)

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