NFT The Analysis of Risk and Return

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NFT The Analysis of Risk and Return ( nft-the-analysis-risk-and-return )

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volatility of NFTs with respect to bitcoin price movements. This finding makes sense, since if bitcoin were to fail as a technology then most likely other networks would fail as well – they are less resilient to common risk factors and have significantly shorter history. Positive and significant alpha implies higher than expected returns due to additional risks to which NFTs might be exposed. These risks may arise from new and untested technology used by NFT-driven startups, prototype nature of their products and business models, regulatory uncertainty, and many others. In the subsequent analysis, we construct the equal-weighted NFT price index. The objective is to indicate visually the performance of the NFT portfolio against the backdrop of the return to bitcoin – the oldest, most valuable, and trusted cryptocurrency. We are particularly interested in gauging how NFTs respond to the bitcoin drawdown that occurred in the mid 2021, when bitcoin lost about 55% of its market value (based on the intraday minimums and maximums). The magnitude of the drawdown compares in percentage terms with the bitcoin price drop in March 2020 triggered by COVID-19. First, we find that the portfolio of NFTs outperforms bitcoin in the long-run within the time-window starting on the initial listing day and ending on the last day of the sample period. The NFT investment multiple is close to 40 (4000%), compared to 10 (1000%) earned by bitcoin over the same time span. Second and equally important, the NFT portfolio outperforms bitcoin following the crash of mid-2021. The realized multiples are much smaller (3.5 vs. 1.5), however, what is perhaps more interesting is that NFT segment leads the crypto market recovery after the market bottoms out in the summer of 2021. In the final test, we perform an event study to measure the valuation effect on the blockchains due to the integration of the NFT technology within their ecosystems. We identify earliest press announcements of various NFT applications and NFT partnerships formed between the blockchain developers and NFT startups. To this end, we use Internet sources 5

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