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NFT The Analysis of Risk and Return

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NFT The Analysis of Risk and Return ( nft-the-analysis-risk-and-return )

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of Axie Infinity Shards (AXS) and Smooth Love Potion (SLP), which are token names that belong to the same network, as well as Theta Fuel (TFUEL) and Theta (THETA), which are the integral part of another network. As shown in Column 3, NFTs have been listed on the exchange for the duration ranging from 9 to 867 days, the sample average being 314 days. The number of trading days is to some degree correlated with market capitalization, although there are some large outliers. For example, Cocos-BCX has been listed on the cryptocurrency exchange for over two years, whereas its market valuation stands at only $31 million. [Place Table 2 about here] Our sample includes 7 NFT “unicorns” that is companies with a token-based market capitalization of at least $1 billion (Column 4). These are Theta ($8.4bn), PancakeSwap ($5bn), Axie Infinity Shards ($4.4bn), Decentrland ($1.7bn), Enjin ($1.7bn), Flow ($1.4bn), and Audius ($1bn). Some of them are newly listed, for example, the NFT-dedicated blockchain architecture Flow has been traded on the Binance exchange for only 33 days. When we exclude unicorns, the average market capitalization drops to $354mil, indicating that our sample displays some heterogeneity in size. This figure compares with the average pre-money valuation of successful startups that exited through US-based IPO (see e.g., Nanda and Rhodes- Kropf, 2013). Column 6 shows an astounding average first-day return of 130%, even after excluding the outlying observation of My Neighbor Alice (ALICE) that earns on the first listing day 24,640%. Unfortunately, we do not have information on the offer price (price at which tokens are sold directly to investors in private undisclosed deals). Nevertheless, typically, just like in the IPO, the offer price is significantly lower than the open price on the initial listing day. We draw on the IPO study of Aggarwal, Krigman, and Womack (2002) and estimate the first day return as the difference between the close and open prices scaled by the price at market open. The average return is 130% (median 31%). These values are substantially higher than 35% 13

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