NFT The Analysis of Risk and Return

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(13%) for IPO reported in Loughran and McDonald (2013) or 24% (18%) in Liu and Ritter (2011) although, during the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble the first day IPO return averaged 71%. First-day trading volume is enormous, indicating the increased market activity on day one. It is about 400% percent higher than the average volume recorded over a 30-day period following the listing. Even if we exclude the outlier (ALICE), the first-day volume remains as high as 333%. For comparison, Aggarwal et al. (2002) report first-day volume scaled by the number of shares offered in IPO to be 129% at the mean. Figure 3 reports first-listing-day NFT winners and losers. [Place Figure 3 about here] The average total return since listing is over 3,000% (Column 6) driven primarily by one outlying observation that belongs to AXS (53,535%). If we remove AXS from the calculation, the return remains equally impressive and amounts to over 600% (median 65%). The total return is estimated as the close price on 31 August 2021 divided by the close price on the second listing day minus one. Effectively, it is a raw buy-and-hold return. Note that this is the crude measure of return, as it does not account for the holding period, which varies from NFT to NFT, neither it controls for the timing of the investment. Recall that the average longevity of the NFT enterprise on the crypto exchange is slightly less than one year. For purposes of comparison, long-term IPO performance has been documented to be persistently negative starting from the first month following the initial listing date (see e.g., Fan, Wong, and Zhang 2007; Ritter, 1991). In contrast, the average long-term return to the portfolio of NFTs is positive and spectacularly high (above 600%). Alternatively, we could present the returns as investment multiples, which is a widely used metric in the venture capital (VC) industry. Investment multiple is defined as the sum of all cash distributions, net of fees and carry, divided by all cash contributions. If we suppose that all investments are made on the second listing day and are liquidated on 31 August 2021 (end 14

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