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of sample period), then the average investment multiple is 6 (assuming the only contribution is the money spent on buying the NFT and the only distributions are the proceeds from the sale of this NFT). For comparison, the study by Brown, Harris, Hu, Jenkinson, Kaplan, and Robinson (2021), reports investment multiples between 1.56 and 3.49 for their sample of venture capital funds between 1987 and 2013. [Place Figure 4 about here] Looking into investment multiples in more detail (Figure 4, Panel A), we find that the first five winning projects exhibit extraordinary returns, even if grossly underestimated. Typically, startup founders mint tokens prior to the initial listing and sell them to investors in private undisclosed deals at a considerable discount. Unfortunately, we do not have data on the terms of these private token sales. Despite the fact that we are forced to omit considerable pre- listing price appreciations from our analysis, the NFT multiples are staggering. For example, THETA returns roughly 60 times the money invested. Together with TFUEL the multiple rises to over 73 (both are part of the same crypto-network). The second highest is SAND with a multiple of 18 and MANA returning 12 times the capital invested. On the other hand, the losses are very limited with only 5 tokens out of 19 experiencing negative returns (26% of the sample). The largest loser is SUPER with the multiple of -0.7 or -71% return. To conclude, NFTs appear to behave much like venture investments with the exception that they exhibit reduced downside risk and greater upside potential as compared to the average VC portfolio firm (see e.g., Harris, Jenkinson, and Kaplan, 2014). More specifically, about 23% of the NFTs in our sample give a return greater than 1,000% compared with 15% for the VC (Cochrane, 2005). Next, we turn to the preliminary analysis of risk. By looking at the daily volatilities (Table 2, Column 11) we infer that the average volatility of the NFT-based projects is very high (11% daily) and that the volatility distribution (unlike return) is symmetric with the mean and median being equal. The least volatile NFT token is GHST (2% daily), whereas the most 15PDF Image | NFT The Analysis of Risk and Return
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