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and bitcoin’s remains at 9.4. However, excluding the outliers from the analysis may not be the right approach. In the VC industry large positive outliers are the norm. Venture capitalist actively search for outliers, as the few positive outliers determine the ultimate VC returns and the likelihood of VC success. 4.5. NFT at the forefront of market recovery Panel C in Figure 6 shows the NFT price index during the roughly ten-week period following the bitcoin 55% price drawdown that bottomed out on June 22, 2021. As in the prior subsection, we construct the equal-weighted NFT price index by scaling NFT cryptocurrency prices by the close price on June 22 (by construction, 1 is the first index value). We proceed the same with the price of bitcoin. As seen in Figure 6 Panel C, the NFT index outperforms bitcoin by the factor of 7. More specifically, investing in the portfolio of NFTs around June 22, 2021 would have yielded a whopping 250% return in absolute terms and 200% in excess of bitcoin. It is worth pointing out that during the same period bitcoin generates a non-trivial 50% return. Also, note that NFT and bitcoin move in concert for some time before NFT begins outperforming bitcoin, meaning that investors had a great deal of flexibility in the timing of entry into the NFT positions. In Panel B, we exclude superior performing cryptocurrency project Axie Infinity (AXS), even though AXS seems like a natural candidate for the NFT portfolio. It is probably the most successful and widely known NFT with total sales volume exceeding $2.3 billion13, the bulk of which was generated during the first nine months of 2021. As seen in Panel B, excluding AXS from the index reduces the return on the NFT portfolio to 133% over a ten-week span (compared to 250% with AXS, see Panel A). On a bitcoin-adjusted basis, the return is over 80%. In any case, with or without the inclusion of AXS, the return to NFTs is staggering. 13 https://dappradar.com/nft/marketplaces 20PDF Image | NFT The Analysis of Risk and Return
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