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Figure 3. Sargent and Lundy Cost Forecast NRC Review of the S&L Report36 The NRC committee concluded that “since 1999, significant progress has been made in understanding the potential impacts of thermal storage technologies, thin film glass mirrors, improved heat collection units, improved trough support structures, and other technical opportunities to improve CSP technology.”37 The NRC found the S&L analysis plausible and agreed with S&L that CSP costs could be reduced to 3.5 to 6.2 cents/kWh by 2020, given that deployment proceeded at the rate assumed by S&L.38 The NRC committee gave S&L high marks for maintaining a credible process, avoiding any conflicts of interest, and responding to committee requests. The committee interviewed several industry representatives during the process of evaluating the S&L report, gathering information which augmented what they found in the report. The committee raised some issues and requested additional information of S&L, which was provided in the final report.39 The major issue that the NRC raised was the question of whether the deployment figures used by S&L in projecting cost reductions could be achieved. S&L determined that a deployment of 2.6 GW would result in the cost of electricity from a solar trough plant being reduced from 12.6 to 6.2 cents/kWh. In its critique, the NRC concluded that “without substantial incentives, it is very unlikely that CSP trough and tower markets will evolve, and that if CSP markets are ever to reach cost competitiveness, market incentives for CSP would again have to be created.”40 Due to the high costs of first-of-a-kind plants, the committee felt there was little chance that 2.6 GW would be deployed and, because of this, they disagreed with S&L’s cost projections. However, the NRC agreed with S&L that deployment, should it occur, would affect cost reduction. Thus, the NRC continued to believe that CSP technology was too expensive to be deployed without policy-based incentives. An analysis of what type and quantity of incentives would be required to spur deployment of CSP was outside the scope of S&L’s and the NRC’s statements of work. It had been determined by DOE that this was a policy issue and was not appropriate for a technical analysis of CSP.41 6PDF Image | 2007 Concentrating Solar Power USA DOE
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