A Manual for the Economic Evaluation of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies

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A Manual for the Economic Evaluation of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies ( a-manual-economic-evaluation-energy-efficiency-and-renewable )

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Table 2-2. Recommended Discount Rates for Projects Lacking Investment-Specific Data Government Industry Transportation Commercial Residential Utilitv Sector Real Discount Rate (”/o) 3.0’ 10.0 10.0 18.0 10.0 4.gb a. This rate is for energy investment decisions that include conservation or renewable energy alternatives. For other projects, see OMB’s recommended discount rate in Table 2-1. b. The before-tax discount rate to use is 6.4%. The value of such a “social”discount rate has been a controversy for decades, and at this point, the experts havenotagreedonsucharate. Manyhavearguedthatthesocialrateofdiscountshouldbeidenticalto the current private sector discount rates to ensure that public investments with low rates of return would notsupplanthigher-returnprivateinvestments. Othersarguethatthesocialrateshouldbelowerthanthe private rate and equal to the consumption rate-the rate at which consumers are willing to displace consumptionnowforconsumptioninthefuture, Ahigherrateworksagainstrenewablesandconservation technologies and generally favors conventional fossil fuel technologies. As such, it is recommended that, if needed, an appropriate social discount rate to use is the government rate outlined in Table 2-2. However, the analyst should be aware that the rates set by OMB and tihe Federal Energy Management Program could be a function of the current administration’s agenda. For example, an administration favoring less government spending and fewer government projects would push for higher discount rates, thus making it more difficult for projects to pass the cost-effectiveness test (Lind 1982). Discount rates are sometimes adjusted to reflect risk. The subject of risk-adjusted discount rates is covered in detail in the Uncertainty and Risk subsection in Section 2. Cost of Capital Introducfion The cost of capital is an important factor in the economic analyses of firms, utilities, and other business entities. The previous section illustsated that cost of capital is frequently used as the discount rate in economic analyses. The cost of capital has to be recovered by the investor to warrant his investment. The price of a good or service to a consumer in a competitive market or in a market subject to utility regulation will include a return roughly equal to the industry’s cost of capital. Higher returns attract increased investment, whereas lower returns discourage investment and lead to inadequate supplies and sources of investment capital. 9

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