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becompareddirectlytothebefore-taxcostofelectricpowertothefirm. Forahomeownerinvestor, this before-tdafter-tax issue is not relevant. It is perfectly legitimate to evaluate an investment from several gerspeceives. A municipal utility might calculate both the required revenue associated with a new distribution feeder line and the social costhenefit ratio of the same line. Not only are the tax concerns and data different mong investors, many other data also vary with the investor and the nature of the investment (e.g., discount rates, interest rates available on financing, energy supply costs, and so forth). Different measures of economic viability are used by different investors and for different types of investments. Utilities, for example, will typically compare and evaluate alternative generation systems by calculating the revenue required to recoup the costs of the systems, whereas homeowners might use simple payback calculations. Measures used will also vary within a market sector. An independent power producer may evaluate aninvestment through the internall rate of return, as opposed to a utility’s evaluation through the required revenue measure. Considerations such as taxes, data variations, and different measures for evaluation are discussed in more detail in the sections that follow. Uncertainty and Risk lntroduction Uncertainty refers to the analyst’s sfate of information about a variable or parameter of interest, specificallywhenthequantitycannotbeknownperfectly. Uncertaintyisoften,butnotalways,associated with variables that will be revealed at a later time, such as the outcome of an experiment or next year’s oil price. A closely related concept is variability. Variability refers to a parameter varying across a group or population. Forexample,thereissignificantvariabilityinretailelectricitypricesbyregionintheUnited States. A parameter with variability may or may not be uncertain. For example, current retail electricity prices are variable but certain, whereas future electricity prices are both variable and uncertain. A third concept is risk A general definition of risk is the uncertainty associated with a key value criterion. Anexampleofriskistheuncertaintyinthenetpresentvalueofaproject. Therelationshipof a specified risk to the uncertainties and variabilities in project economics can be explored using the procedures discussed next. Discussion Applications of UncertaintyAnalysis Uncertainty arises in two contextsin economic analysis. It can arise when performing primary economic evaluations, such as an accepureject decision of investing in a new technology; it can also arise when trying to predict the economic decisions of others such as predicting how consumers will react to an increase in electricity prices. 27PDF Image | A Manual for the Economic Evaluation of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies
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