PDF Publication Title:
Text from PDF Page: 039
Table 2-9. Variables for the Example of Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis Base Case (Most Parameters likely) Quantity Varied Price Varied O&M Varied Initial Investment Varied Over these ranges, as illustrated, NPV is quite sensitive to price and quantity, and not very judgment. sensitive to O&M costs or project capital costs. One useful extension of this type of sensitivity analysis for an individual variable is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis better defines the range of possible outcomes by deterministically v q i n g a number of dependent variables simultaneously to allow for their correlations. For example, if the level of annual O&M was related to the level of annual kwh sales, it would make sense to vary both parameters simultaneously to account for this interdependency. The third step, probability assessment, is required only for those parameters to which the project economics are sensitive. In this step, each of the critical parameters is described in terms of a probability densityfunctionoritsequivalent,andcorrelationsbetweendependentvariablesmustbedetermined. (An introduction to the practice of both deterministic sensitivity and probability encoding can be found in Howard 1977; 2990.) In our example, the deterministic sensitivity analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to price and quantity. Figure 2-1 gave an example density function for price in this simple model. AdensityfunctionforquantitymustalsobegeneratedandisillustratedinFigure2-3. The implications of these input probabilities are worked out in the fourth and final step called change of variables. Thisprocedureusesthegivenprobabilityinformationabouttheprojectcostandperformance parameters along with the deterministic model to determine the probability distribution governing the measure of the economic value of the project. Several methods are available for accomplishing the change of variables. The most straightforward of these is the Monte Carlo procedure, in which the deterministic model is nrn a number of times, sampling from the input distributions (of all the random variables) each time to build up histograms that approximatethedistributionsofthemeasuresofeconomicvalue(Hammersley1965). Someshortcuts, such as Latin Hypercube Sampling, can be used to reduce the number of model runs that would be 31PDF Image | A Manual for the Economic Evaluation of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies
PDF Search Title:
A Manual for the Economic Evaluation of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy TechnologiesOriginal File Name Searched:
5173.pdfDIY PDF Search: Google It | Yahoo | Bing
NFT (Non Fungible Token): Buy our tech, design, development or system NFT and become part of our tech NFT network... More Info
IT XR Project Redstone NFT Available for Sale: NFT for high tech turbine design with one part 3D printed counter-rotating energy turbine. Be part of the future with this NFT. Can be bought and sold but only one design NFT exists. Royalties go to the developer (Infinity) to keep enhancing design and applications... More Info
Infinity Turbine IT XR Project Redstone Design: NFT for sale... NFT for high tech turbine design with one part 3D printed counter-rotating energy turbine. Includes all rights to this turbine design, including license for Fluid Handling Block I and II for the turbine assembly and housing. The NFT includes the blueprints (cad/cam), revenue streams, and all future development of the IT XR Project Redstone... More Info
Infinity Turbine ROT Radial Outflow Turbine 24 Design and Worldwide Rights: NFT for sale... NFT for the ROT 24 energy turbine. Be part of the future with this NFT. This design can be bought and sold but only one design NFT exists. You may manufacture the unit, or get the revenues from its sale from Infinity Turbine. Royalties go to the developer (Infinity) to keep enhancing design and applications... More Info
Infinity Supercritical CO2 10 Liter Extractor Design and Worldwide Rights: The Infinity Supercritical 10L CO2 extractor is for botanical oil extraction, which is rich in terpenes and can produce shelf ready full spectrum oil. With over 5 years of development, this industry leader mature extractor machine has been sold since 2015 and is part of many profitable businesses. The process can also be used for electrowinning, e-waste recycling, and lithium battery recycling, gold mining electronic wastes, precious metals. CO2 can also be used in a reverse fuel cell with nafion to make a gas-to-liquids fuel, such as methanol, ethanol and butanol or ethylene. Supercritical CO2 has also been used for treating nafion to make it more effective catalyst. This NFT is for the purchase of worldwide rights which includes the design. More Info
NFT (Non Fungible Token): Buy our tech, design, development or system NFT and become part of our tech NFT network... More Info
Infinity Turbine Products: Special for this month, any plans are $10,000 for complete Cad/Cam blueprints. License is for one build. Try before you buy a production license. May pay by Bitcoin or other Crypto. Products Page... More Info
CONTACT TEL: 608-238-6001 Email: greg@infinityturbine.com (Standard Web Page)