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the longer-lived investment are summed over a longer period, but benefits that occur over the longer life areignored. Withmeasuressuchasinternalrateofreturn,theinequities,whicharelessobvious,area result of uncertainties as to what will happen at the end of the lifetime of the shorter-lived investment. These uncertainties include: Will it be possible to reinvest in a similar short-livedinvestment at that time? Will the same financing and tax depreciation be available-then? Although there is no way to fully overcome such issues, there are four options: (1) assume multiple short- term investments with a total analysis period equal to the life of the longer-lived option, (2) find the least common multiple of the service lives, (3) lengthen the shorter investment life (through increased repair and maintenance), or (4) shorten the longer investment life (by adding the estimated foregone years of firture return to the salvage value of the longer lifetime investment). The problem with both of the last two approaches is that there is the addition of a subjective estimate on future costs and worth (i.e., increasesinrepairandmaintenanceorreplacementcostsorsalvagevalue). Thereisnouniversalruleas to which method to use or how to approach the problem. Each situation is unique and requires the analyst to make an individual decision (Short 1983). Sensitivity analysis with respect to the lifetime assumptions is recommended. It may very well be that the lifetime of the invesment is not a critical factor. In this case, a fifth alternative is available in which the alternative investments are treated as any other investments using measures i n which lifetime does not have a major impact on the comparison of alternatives such as LCOE and payback. Retrofits In the economic analysis of retrofits, the analyst must not only determine if it is economical to retrofit, butalsowhenitwouldbemosteconomicaltoretrofit. Ifconventionalfuelpricesarepredictedtorise substantially in a couple of years, then it may be more economical to wait and retrofit in 2 years. Determining the appropriate time to retrofit is difficult because the useful life of the retrofit investment endsforeachalternativeatadifferentpointintime. ?hiscomplexityisminimizedbycomparingonly two alternatives at a time, with the second alternative representing investment in the retrofit 1 year later thanthefirstalternative. Theapproachfollows: 1. Select the first year for which the retrofit will be considered (frequently the present). 2. Comparetheretrofitinthisbaseyearwithnoretrofitatalltoensurethatretrofittingmakeseconomic sense. If it is not economical, proceed no further until at least one point in time (the new base year) can be identified at which retrofitting is economical. 3. Compare retrofit in the year after the base year with no retrofit at all. If the next year retrofit is not economical, the base year is optimal. 4. UsingtheLCOEastheeconomicmeasureandtheusefullifeoftheretrofitinvestment,computethe LCOE of the base year retrofit. 5. Compute the LCOE of the next year retrofit with an analysis period 1 year longer beginning at the same time as the analysis period of the base year retrofit (i.e., the retrofit does not occur until the second year of the analysis period) and ending at the end of the usehl life of the next year retrofit. 6. Compare these two LCOEs. If the base year LCOE is better, it is optimal. If not, assign the next year as the base year and return to step 3. 80PDF Image | A Manual for the Economic Evaluation of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies
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