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Parabolic-Trough Technology Roadmap January 1999 MARKET ASSESSMENT POWER MARKET SCENARIOS In attempting to understand future market opportunities it is useful to develop different scenarios about the nature of emerging markets. The trough workshop participants identified three market scenarios that seem to be relevant for future trough development. ÿ Scenario 1: Low-Cost Competitive Power Market Energy prices remain low for approximately the next 20 years. Power markets are dominated by the trend toward privatization and least-cost power options. Independent power producers (IPPs) are the primary suppliers of new power generation. Concentrating solar power technologies will be used in niche applications characterized by high fuel prices; in environmentally friendly markets that will pay a premium for green power; or in applications in which solar technologies can leverage off conventional technologies to drive solar costs down (such as the Integrated Solar Combined-Cycle System [ISCCS]). In this environment, CSP technologies need to focus on driving down costs. Wind power will likely be the primary competition for CSP applications. ÿ Scenario 2: Global Climate Change Global climate change causes more nations to invest significant resources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction becomes the major driver for the development of CSP technologies. Economic incentives are put into place to create a market opportunity. In this case, the primary focus will be on rapid deployment of CO2 reduction technologies and development of large, high-capacity-factor grid-connected plants. Repowering of existing plants presents an important opportunity to minimize costs. Development of thermal or electric storage is a high priority. ÿ Scenario 3: Fossil Fuel Price Escalation Fossil fuel prices escalate due to declining production or through political developments or other events that result in reduced production of one or more fossil fuels. In this scenario, other fuel and energy technologies are developed to replace the demand for fossil fuels. During this period, significant price fluctuations are seen until demand for alternative fuel and energy technologies can replace a significant portion of the demand for conventional fuels. Increasing energy prices and energy price uncertainty will drive the demand for solar technologies in this scenario. The activities developed later in the roadmap address one or more of these scenarios. Although Scenario 1 is generally thought to be the more realistic picture of the near-term future, Scenarios 2 and 3 are potentially of such significance that it is appropriate to include activities that also address these as an insurance policy for the future. Page 5PDF Image | A Pathway for Sustained Commercial Development and Deployment of Parabolic Trough Technology
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