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Parabolic-Trough Technology Roadmap January 1999 MARKET SUMMARY ÿ Competitive Price of Power The competitive price of baseload power in markets with well-developed infrastructure and access to low-cost fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) is 2.5¢–4¢/kilowatt-hour (kWh). ÿ Intermittent Power Power that is intermittent and that cannot be dispatched at will—such as wind power—is only valued at the fuel and incremental O&M cost of the avoided generation. This energy would typically be valued at 2¢–3¢/kWh. Dispatchable power, possible with CSP technologies using either storage or hybridization, does not suffer from this limitation. ÿ Intermediate Load Power In many cases, new capacity is needed to meet peak loads and is not needed for 24-hour-per- day operation. The competitive price of intermediate and peak load generation can be significantly higher than that for baseload generation. The competitive price for intermediate load generation (20%–40% annual capacity factors) is approximately 4¢–6¢/kWh for conventional power technologies. It is critical that an intermediate load technology be dispatchable to meet the peak load. For most developing regions, nighttime peaking will be important; for these markets, storage or hybrid design configurations will be necessary. Dispatchable technologies will have an advantage here. ÿ Niche Markets In general, niche market opportunities exist where the levelized cost of power is 6¢–8¢/kWh. These niche opportunities exist due to high fuel prices (e.g., island systems) or as a result of a higher value being placed on green power generation. ÿ Current International Opportunities The international market is driven by internal host country energy programs and encouraged by the positive attitudes of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the World Bank toward the implementation and development of CSP systems. These opportunities exist in developing countries, and their progress is strongly influenced (and frequently delayed) by bureaucratic snags, shifting internal politics, broader energy issues (such as requirements for restructuring imposed by World Bank policies), and other factors. In recent years, discussions have been active with energy planners, utilities, and government agencies in India, Mexico, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Greece (Crete), Brazil, Iran, China, and Spain (see Table 1). Interest and early steps are gaining momentum in other parts of Africa as well. Although it is impossible to predict how any of these initiatives will develop over the next few years, opportunities clearly exist. Most countries have focused on parabolic-trough technology as having already reached the commercial stage, with the recognition that power towers or dish-engine systems may become a more cost-effective option at some point in the future. ÿ Current U.S. Domestic Market Opportunities Concentrating solar power technologies are primarily suited to locations with a high direct normal solar resource, such as the Southwest. The current wave of deregulation and utility restructuring is driving the market toward least-cost power, making it difficult for CSP technologies to compete. However, a number of states are including green power requirements in their restructuring legislation. Arizona, Nevada, and California have included solar Page 6PDF Image | A Pathway for Sustained Commercial Development and Deployment of Parabolic Trough Technology
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