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Parabolic-Trough Technology Roadmap January 1999 TROUGH DEVELOPMENT VISION During the workshop a vision for the future development of parabolic-trough technologies was defined. The vision builds on the successes of current trough experience and identifies a low-risk approach to advance the state of the technology. This vision expresses a synergy of technology development steps and market expansion following defined scenarios. The technology development is foreseen to proceed in a multi-step process with several clear technology advances that correspond to very distinct cost reduction steps. Table 3 outlines the basic developments within these steps, and also shows the simultaneous market and policy deployment steps required for success. Table 3. Technology Development and Deployment Activities Step Technology Development 1 State-of-the-Art Collector ISCCS Design Optimization Deployment GEF Market Aggregation Low-Cost Financing and Grants 2 Optimized Steel Collector Improved HCE Lifetime Thermal Storage Process Design Optimization Standardized Designs Specialized O&M Tools and Equipment Green Market Development Solar Tax Equity Standard Financing Packages Systems Analysis Tools High-Resolution Satellite Insolation Data 3 Advanced Trough Collector Advanced Reflector Advanced O&M Solar Power Parks Solar Investment Funds 4 Tilted Collector Direct Steam Generation Figure 7 illustrates the steps and timing of this vision, showing the interrelationship of the technology and market development activities along with the expected electricity costs achieved during the process. Each of the technology steps is followed by additional cost reductions resulting from plant deployment. Based on this vision, a sustained market is envisioned for trough technology during the next 20 years. Initially, the cost of trough solar power is expected to be 10¢–12¢/kWh, depending on plant configuration. Initial projects will be built using state-of-the-art technologies that take advantage of lessons learned since the last trough projects were built. These markets are expected to be subsidized by GEF cost buy-down grants or other special green/renewable financing options. The next level of technology development is expected to reduce the cost of trough power to 6¢–8¢/kWh, which should allow trough technology to compete in the emerging green markets. To achieve this cost target, a next-generation collector and other cost reductions will be needed. Additional technology development and cost reductions will be necessary to achieve later cost reductions that drop costs below 6¢/kWh. Though market penetration is traditionally very difficult to predict, rough estimates suggest that achievement of up to 1 gigawatt (GW) installed capacity by 2005 and 5 GW by 2010 is possible. Page 16PDF Image | A Pathway for Sustained Commercial Development and Deployment of Parabolic Trough Technology
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