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Starting in the early 1980s, the unique market conditions created by PURPA (1978), and the tax incentives enacted under ETA (1978) and ERTA (1981), worked together to create a wave of geothermal development that lasted for a decade. Capacity quadrupled between 1980 and 1994 (EIA 1995). Most of the capacity was installed in the mid- to late 1980s; about half was installed as independent power projects under PURPA contracts. However, by 1992, the market for new geothermal projects began to decline when contracts executed under PURPA, which had a 10-year schedule of high prices, reverted to a lower price based on new avoided cost calculations. This left geothermal power plants to compete directly with natural gas-fired generation technologies that were able to produce electricity at 2-3 cents/kWh as a result of low natural gas prices and technological improvements. State policies in California and Nevada also played a role in the reduction in the demand for geothermal power. In California, as a result of ongoing restructuring of the power industry, utilities began selling off their electric generation capacity and did not have interest in bringing new capacity online. And in Nevada, the elimination of Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) reduced the incentive for utilities to diversify their generation portfolios with renewable energy resources. As a result of these conditions, U.S. geothermal generating capacity stagnated in the 1990s, edging up only slightly from 2.72 GW in 1990 to 2.98 MW in 1999 (EIA 2001a). In 2000 and 2001, market and non-market forces began to align once again to create an environment in which geothermal energy has the potential to play an important role in meeting the nation's energy needs. Electricity supply shortages in California, in part a result of the generation divestiture of the 1990s, have greatly increased demand for reliable power sources such as geothermal energy. Record levels of natural gas demand, coupled with infrastructure constraints, have produced record natural gas price volatility. In addition, new concerns over environmental quality and fuel diversification have prompted many developers and power purchasers to consider geothermal energy. Finally, as part of their ongoing restructuring efforts, several states have enacted or are considering legislation specifying renewable portfolio standards. In 2001, several bills were introduced in the U.S. Congress that propose an expansion of the 10-year wind and closed-loop biomass PTC, enacted under EPAct, to geothermal power projects. If passed into law, these bills would provide geothermal developers with an inflation-adjusted 1.8 cent/kWh credit against taxes for the first 10 years of project operation. The purpose of the geothermal PTC is to reduce the price of electricity from geothermal power plants in order to encourage increased demand for, and subsequent supply of, geothermal electricity. Whether or not the PTC will be successful in achieving this objective will depend greatly upon the project-level financial impacts of the PTC. These impacts are the focus of this report. 12PDF Image | An Economic Valuation of a Geothermal Production Tax Credit
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