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With these Base Case inputs, CSDS projects that solar power will provide about 55 GW of capacity in 2050, far larger than today’s 350 MW (see top slice of graph in Fig. 3). Although this growth is largely attributable to improvements in the cost and performance of solar power plants, there are many other drivers. By about 2014, the increase in natural gas prices (as forecast by the CA MPR) stalls the recent growth in new installations of combined- cycle, natural gas-fired power plants (fourth slice from the bottom). At about the same time, installations of advanced coal plants surge and dominate the new-build market until 2050 (seventh slice from the bottom – “Coal-new”). 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 Fig. 3: National Capacity Projections for the Base Case The dominance of new coal plants in the new capacity market of the second quarter of the 21st century is dramatic. Unlike natural gas power plants, the fuel for these coal plants is expected to remain relatively inexpensive, leaving no room for renewable energy to penetrate the market as a fuel saver. Likewise, sulfur dioxide and NOx emissions from new advanced coal plants are almost an order-of- magnitude less than today’s average existing coal plant, limiting the advantage of renewable energy for emission caps. However, a carbon tax or CO2 limit would have a dramatic impact on the growth of renewable energy and energy efficiency. Fig. 4 depicts the modeled growth in future CSP capacity by solar class. As expected, the best solar resource is used first and used the most by the model. However, the solar Class 5 resource is not completely deployed before solar Classes 4 and 3 (to a much lesser extent) begin to be deployed in the model. This is primarily due to transmission distance and load growth within the local region in which the solar resource exists. In other words, a lower-class solar resource close to the load is more economic, in some cases, than a better solar resource much farther from the load. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fig. 5 depicts the CSP capacity growth by the method of transmission. “Existing Grid between Regions” indicates that the model pays some price to build a line to the existing grid and uses some fraction of the existing grid capacity to get out of the region to satisfy load in another region or PCA. “Used for In-region Load” indicates that the power produced by the solar plant is used to satisfy load within the same region as the solar capacity, and only local distribution transmission is necessary. Finally, “New Grid Lines between Regions” indicates that a dedicated line only for that CSP capacity is built from one region to another (which might be quite some distance away). For the CSDS Base Case, the CSP solar power initially is used to satisfy load within the region. This is typically the cheapest method of transmission. Second, the existing grid is used to transmit the power. Often, this is just a short distance to adjoining regions with much larger load. For example, the solar region east of Los Angeles transmits power to be used in the Los Angeles region itself. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fig. 5: CSP Capacity Growth by Transmission Type Class 5 (7.75 - 8.06 kW/m2/day) Class 4 (7.50 - 7.74 kW/m2/day) Class 3 (7.25 - 7.49 kW/m2/day) Class 2 (7.00 - 7.24 kW/m2/day) Class 1 (6.75 - 6.99 kW/m2/day) Conc. Solar nuclear oil-gas-steam Coal-IGCC Coal-new Coal-no scrub Coal-w/scrub Gas-CC Gas-CT Hydro Total Wind Fig. 4: CSP Base Case Penetration by Solar Class Used For In-region Load New Grid Lines Between Regions Existing Grid between Regions 4 2000 2004 1999 2002 2008 2012 2006 2010 2016 2020 2014 2018 2022 2026 2024 2028 2030 2034 2032 2036 2038 2000 2042 2004 2008 2040 2044 2046 2050 2048 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 GW GW GWPDF Image | Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Market Potential
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