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Another interesting question of deployment, which can be answered by CSDS, is where the future CSP capacity will be located. Based on the GIS inputs to CSDS, transmission, siting issues, and load location and load growth, the model selects the economically best sites for each period to add new capacity. Fig. 6 shows the location of CSP capacity in 2050. As expected, the regions with the greatest deployment level have excellent solar resource or are close to large electric-load growth (such as in southern California). Fig. 6: CSP Capacity deployment by region in 2050 4. SENSITIVITY CASES FOR FEDERAL POLICIES We examined three federal policies including continued research and development (R&D), extension of the current 30% investment tax credit and switching to use of a production tax credit. We present results from each below. 4.1 Continued R&D for Concentrating Solar Power As stated above, the primary reason for the surge in CSP capacity in the Base Case is the anticipated improvements in costs and performance. Fig. 7 compares the projected deployment of CSP in the Base Case with a case in which there are no R&D-driven improvements in solar plant costs – the costs are the same costs as today throughout time. By 2050, the total CSP deployed in this no-R&D case is only 831 MW, or less than 2% of the Base Case installations. Although both cases include improvements due to learning, the absence of the R&D improvements precludes the installations that could lead to significant learning-based cost/performance improvements. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fig. 7: CSP Capacity Expansion with and without technological improvements Research and development improvements are just one method for lowering the cost of CSP. There are other policy and engineering methods for lowering these costs. Instead of trying to model each of these cost-reduction techniques, another methodology is to simply lower the total “cost trajectory” through time. In other words, we can take the Base Case solar cost trajectory and lower it by a certain percentage. Fig. 8 demonstrates the impact of lowering the cost incrementally up to 40% of the Base Case cost trajectory. This shows that a reduction in cost of 50% throughout time causes the initial penetration of CSP to move forward in time by roughly 10 years. If the cost trajectory is reduced by 50%, roughly 32 GW of CSP capacity are installed by 2020 vs. less than 1 GW for the Base Case. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fig. 8: Cost Reduction Impact on Capacity Penetration 4.2 Extension of the Investment Tax Credit The Energy Policy Act of 2005 added a 30% investment tax credit until 2007 on top of the existing permanent 10% investment tax credit for solar power. There are several reasons for extending the 30% ITC far past the current 2007 expiration date. The lead time for a CSP plant is long enough that a 2-year window on the ITC does not allow Base Case No R & D Improvements 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Cheaper Capital and O&M Costs 5 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 CSP Capacity (GW) CSP Capacity (GW)PDF Image | Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Market Potential
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